The Most Vexing Quandary Of Them All
The September jobs report won't be the only thing worth watching for market participants in what promises to be an eventful week.
On the economic front, consumer confidence, ISM manufacturing, personal spending, and, of course, jobless claims, are also deck. In addition, traders will hear from a bevy of Fed speakers, including Williams, Bowman, and Kashkari.
Given the busy docket, it's unlikely that any single data point will move the needle or otherwise shift the macro narrative, especially g
As you’ve been citing, a “very low probability” is a non-zero probability. I’ve been a voting age adult long enough, and fortunate enough to have paid attention, to know the difference. This scares the crap out of me for the post-election future. The people who could get hurt, the businesses destroyed, the trajectory. The stock market is a machine that pulls forward information. Pull out the Bayesian stats on this one.
Depending on what happens, this could obviously portend a “stick a fork in it” few years for this country until we come out of the turning. I remain optimistic longer-term (like eight years and longer out).
Get your popcorn. Get your whiskey. Grab a loved one and watch American democracy teeter on a razor’s edge.