To Believe In The Rotation Or Not To Believe…
To believe in the rotation or not to believe in the rotation, that is the question for fund managers staring at a tide which appears to have turned in favor of Value and Cyclicals amid rampant trade optimism and the assumption that eventually, the coordinated global easing push executed over the past nine months will show up in the economic data.
The problem, though, is that there is no guarantee that the global economy will in fact inflect for the better and dodge a deeper downturn. Indeed, th
In the near term, isn’t this choice of belief vs non-belief largely dominated by a single factor: whether the US and China do a trade “deal” rolls back most tariffs?
Of course there are other factors, but if you knew with certainty that a trade deal will or will not be done, that would pretty much determine how you bet on the Value+Cyclical vs Growth+Defensive choice, right?
“Near term” meaning next 2-4 months.
Not sure. Trade “deal” mostly priced in. Need biz invest to show signs of life, consumer to hold in there, productivity to offset wage pressures and rates to remain relatively tame. Ultimately GDP needs to pick up and earnings to come through. US will have neg rates in a few years. Eco mess the world ultimately has sad (aging demo and excess debt – corp and govt)