As markets rushed to digest the offshore yuan’s sudden lurch through the closely-watched 7 threshold (which, until Monday, was seen as something of a line in the sand), yet another foreboding headline crossed.
According to the ubiquitous “people familiar with the matter”, China has instructed state-owned buyers to halt imports of US agricultural products.
Clearly, that’s another sign that Beijing is set to retaliate early and often after Donald Trump ratcheted up the trade tensions last week with Twitter threats to impose 10% duties on the remainder of Chinese imports to the US from September 1.
Read more: There Goes 7! Chinese Yuan Sinks To Record Low As Beijing Strikes Back
Treasury futures hit fresh session highs on the news that China is suspending US farm purchases. Cash yields dropped 8bps, extending last week’s 23bps plunge. We are now at ~1.76% on 10s, nearly the lowest since October of 2016.
The reflationary vibes engendered by Trump’s election have now been completely erased.
Last week, Trump lashed out at China for not following through on alleged promises to purchase agricultural goods, although it was never entirely clear whether Beijing had in fact made such a pledge in the first place. “China agreed to buy agricultural product from the US in large quantities, but did not do so”, the president said, during the series of tweets announcing the imminent imposition of new tariffs.
Now, any such purchases are apparently off the table. The next question is whether the US Commerce department continues to expedite waiver requests for US firms to sell to Huawei or whether the administration will move to crack down anew on Beijing’s corporate crown jewel.
Remember, lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are pushing Trump not to surrender any ground on Huawei, so Congress would be just fine with it if the White House reverted to a hardline stance.
Meanwhile, spot gold is at a six-year high and USDJPY is now looking like it wants to push below the January flash-crash lows.
As an aside, this is precisely what the Bank of Japan did not need. A disinflationary shock from a sudden bout of yen strength isn’t great news coming as it does just a week after the bank was effectively forced to stand pat for lack of good easing options short of cutting rates further into negative territory.
US equity futures remained under pressure amid the increasingly dour news flow on Monday. For now, it looks like Wall Street will extend losses coming off the worst week of an otherwise banner year.
I guess they are going to starve or buy from Russia or another one of Earth’s breadbaskets… Let’s see how easy it is for them to replace a large supplier like the U.S.A. can’t see their Regime lasting that long unless they have stockpiles in place already to meet the demands of their population.
I suspect they have thought of all that…….!!!
China has the second largest GDP on Earth. It is not some food-dependent vassal of the United States. They have multiple options. They could pay a premium for domestic production. They could import from Brazil, Canada, Ukraine, etc. They could convert production from land leased in Africa. Once those options are utilized, it will be difficult to recreate trade ties to American farmers. Who will they now export to?
That’s too bad let China pay more for their Food products. We don’t need their junk bring tge jobs back home! Rust Belt states real estate will rise like a Phoenix once the factories reopen this time for good! Real Estate is dirt cheap in areas where factories closed due to job exportation. To hell with China
It’s good to have a dream. Donna Summer, Coke, 10 MPG; AHH those were the days.
Trump has gone too far with China. He has attempted to bully them like he has done Mexico – no respect. Plus the things he is asking for they cannot give – they will not level the playing field. Looks like they have chosen to wait it out through the next election. Maybe they will start meddling in our election against Trump.
Too bad for them. I’m buying more real estate in the US rust belt. Bring those jobs back home! To hell with China
I think your 33/45 has a skip.
I sincerely hope some of that Midwestern real estate doesn’t come with the Brooklyn Bridge attached…
If the yuan sinks to 7.25, mayhaps you can also buy a whaling fleet and a buggy factory.
Anonymous is such a breath of fresh air……..I want to encourage him to buy rust belt real estate.
lol
Even with tariffs, which US consumers pay of course, it’s gonna be hard to close the manufacturing wage gap US/China. Chinese factory workers earn less than $4/hr US. Hope the rust belt can find workers willing to work for those kind of wages. Right now burger flippers and home health aids earn more. US would have to close country to imports or raise tariffs even higher to compete. At that point maybe India would develop a bigger manufacturing base – their workers get paid less than China’s and they’ve got plenty who’d like to work.