Did This “Leading Indicator” Just Ring The Bell For Emerging Markets?

Simply put…

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Here Are The 5 Most Important Questions In US Politics

Are you confused about the political outlook in Washington? Yeah? Well, that’s ok because believe me, everyone in Washington is confused too. At a certain level, it’s nice to see Donald Trump deviating from what we might call “Steve Bannon’s Four-Year Plan To Destroy Western Democracy,” but then again, a series of hilarious policy flip-flops…

“Hold My Beer While I Meet Xi.” And Everything Else You Need To Know On Thursday

It’s Thursday, which means today’s Donald Trump gets to look the Donald Trump who refused to shake Angela Merkel’s hand square in the eyes and say “hold my beer.” Chinese President Xi Jinping (also known as the most important person on the planet) will visit Trump at the President’s Mar-a-Lago club in Florida (where else, right?)…

It’s Quiet Out There: G-20 Leaves Markets Feeling “Damp And Grey”

It feels quiet out there. Maybe a little too quiet. There’s plenty of G-20 banter about the US/Trump having “won” at the weekend gathering in Germany. In this context, “winning” means successfully getting the “resist all forms of protectionism” language removed from the communique. Remember, in Trump/Navarro make-believe land, free trade is a bad thing, so telling everyone…

“I’d Tax Every Benz,” “It’s A Corpse That Still Moves”: Are You Getting The Truth On Trade?

“At the same time, tariffs would weigh on US growth. If we assume that Mexico and China retaliate with equivalent tariffs, this would substantially reduce demand for US exports, depressing US GDP by around 0.7pp by 2019. In fact, tariffs would likely hit US GDP so sharply that the Federal Reserve would be prompted to reduce interest rates to cushion the blow—despite an increase in inflation.”

“Run-For-Your-Life Affair” Continues In France, Fed’s Mester Hints At Hikes, US Vacations

“This weekend was an all-out, run-for-your-life affair.” That’s from Yves-Marie Cann, head of political studies at pollster Elabe, and it underscores just how smoothy things are going in France. That’s called sarcasm. I told you on Sunday that things were looking more tumultuous than ever on the French political scene, and that assessment has been underscored…

Markets Relieved After Trump/Abe Meeting, Reflation Narrative Intact

Well, it was all aboard the reflation train right out of the gate in early Asian trading last night with USDJPY jumping with 10Y yields and futs, following what counts as a “successful” high level summit these days. As I noted last week, the fact that Trump didn’t physically assault Japanese PM Shinzo Abe (well,…