Goldman Presents: 3 Reasons For Equity Investors To Fear A Slowdown In Global Trade

So obviously, deglobalization is a terrible idea. It’s a step backward in time. It represents the devolution of society into tribalism, nationalism, xenophobia, etc. In short: it’s dumb. As in literally dumb. It’s evidence that we are, as a global community, actually getting stupider in terms of our ability to identify as human beings first…

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China? China! Kuroda Contemplates His Exit, And Other Overnight Shenanigans

It’s “Super Thursday” and although the real fireworks (if there are any) aren’t set to begin until later, it was indeed an interesting overnight session. We’ll start in Japan where GDP data missed badly. Here’s the quick breakdown: Japan Revised 1Q GDP Rises Annualized 1%; Est. +2.4% GDP rises 0.3% q/q; est. +0.6% Nominal GDP…

Did This “Leading Indicator” Just Ring The Bell For Emerging Markets?

Simply put…

It’s Tuesday And This Market “Sees No Demons”

“With French political risk significantly reduced (even if there’s still a two-week second round campaign to negotiate), an improving global economy, steadier oil prices, and most of all, range-bound US yields and a lack of fear of rapid Fed tightening, investors see few demons and are off in search of yield.”

Here Are The 5 Most Important Questions In US Politics

Are you confused about the political outlook in Washington? Yeah? Well, that’s ok because believe me, everyone in Washington is confused too. At a certain level, it’s nice to see Donald Trump deviating from what we might call “Steve Bannon’s Four-Year Plan To Destroy Western Democracy,” but then again, a series of hilarious policy flip-flops…

Deutsche Bank’s Kocic Delivers Stark Warning: Beware Populist “Buyer’s Remorse”

“The initial embrace of populism has gained traction based largely on a belief that political disruption, as a mode of change, deserves the same status that creative destruction used to have in the post industrial era with resulting political entropy becoming one of the main sources of market volatility.”

“Hold My Beer While I Meet Xi.” And Everything Else You Need To Know On Thursday

It’s Thursday, which means today’s Donald Trump gets to look the Donald Trump who refused to shake Angela Merkel’s hand square in the eyes and say “hold my beer.” Chinese President Xi Jinping (also known as the most important person on the planet) will visit Trump at the President’s Mar-a-Lago club in Florida (where else, right?)…

Jobs, Minutes, Xi & The Juiceman: Your Full Week Ahead Preview

Welcome to the first quarter of the rest of your life. Q2 marks markets’ first full quarter under President Crazy Orange Juiceman, and there’s a lot to be excited about. Equities are still trading at absurd multiples on hopes that somehow the administration will be able to sneak its agenda by a Congress that’s ready to storm the…

It’s Quiet Out There: G-20 Leaves Markets Feeling “Damp And Grey”

It feels quiet out there. Maybe a little too quiet. There’s plenty of G-20 banter about the US/Trump having “won” at the weekend gathering in Germany. In this context, “winning” means successfully getting the “resist all forms of protectionism” language removed from the communique. Remember, in Trump/Navarro make-believe land, free trade is a bad thing, so telling everyone…

Monday Humor: Compare & Contrast

Courtesy of a guy who no one except Donald Trump takes seriously…

Making America Great Again, One Recession At A Time

“According to research from the Peterson Institute, under a full trade war, the US economy would be pushed into a recession over the next 2 years and the unemployment rate would push above 8%.”

“I’d Tax Every Benz,” “It’s A Corpse That Still Moves”: Are You Getting The Truth On Trade?

“At the same time, tariffs would weigh on US growth. If we assume that Mexico and China retaliate with equivalent tariffs, this would substantially reduce demand for US exports, depressing US GDP by around 0.7pp by 2019. In fact, tariffs would likely hit US GDP so sharply that the Federal Reserve would be prompted to reduce interest rates to cushion the blow—despite an increase in inflation.”

“Run-For-Your-Life Affair” Continues In France, Fed’s Mester Hints At Hikes, US Vacations

“This weekend was an all-out, run-for-your-life affair.” That’s from Yves-Marie Cann, head of political studies at pollster Elabe, and it underscores just how smoothy things are going in France. That’s called sarcasm. I told you on Sunday that things were looking more tumultuous than ever on the French political scene, and that assessment has been underscored…

What’s The Best Hedge Against Protectionism? Fund Managers Weigh In

There’s a lot of chatter these days about the extent to which hedging doesn’t make any sense. That, as Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow observed earlier this week, is a sad state of affairs. Hedging costs money and that cost is compounded by the lost carry on trades that your peers might be holding on to in…

Thinking Globally In A World Gone Mad

One of the themes I harp on quite a lot in these pages is the extent to which populism anno 2017 plays on the fears of those who feel as though the world has left them behind. This notion of the disaffected American factory worker whose job went to cheap labor in China has been…