China? China! Kuroda Contemplates His Exit, And Other Overnight Shenanigans

It’s “Super Thursday” and although the real fireworks (if there are any) aren’t set to begin until later, it was indeed an interesting overnight session. We’ll start in Japan where GDP data missed badly. Here’s the quick breakdown: Japan Revised 1Q GDP Rises Annualized 1%; Est. +2.4% GDP rises 0.3% q/q; est. +0.6% Nominal GDP…

Here Are The 5 Most Important Questions In US Politics

Are you confused about the political outlook in Washington? Yeah? Well, that’s ok because believe me, everyone in Washington is confused too. At a certain level, it’s nice to see Donald Trump deviating from what we might call “Steve Bannon’s Four-Year Plan To Destroy Western Democracy,” but then again, a series of hilarious policy flip-flops…

“Hold My Beer While I Meet Xi.” And Everything Else You Need To Know On Thursday

It’s Thursday, which means today’s Donald Trump gets to look the Donald Trump who refused to shake Angela Merkel’s hand square in the eyes and say “hold my beer.” Chinese President Xi Jinping (also known as the most important person on the planet) will visit Trump at the President’s Mar-a-Lago club in Florida (where else, right?)…

It’s Quiet Out There: G-20 Leaves Markets Feeling “Damp And Grey”

It feels quiet out there. Maybe a little too quiet. There’s plenty of G-20 banter about the US/Trump having “won” at the weekend gathering in Germany. In this context, “winning” means successfully getting the “resist all forms of protectionism” language removed from the communique. Remember, in Trump/Navarro make-believe land, free trade is a bad thing, so telling everyone…

“I’d Tax Every Benz,” “It’s A Corpse That Still Moves”: Are You Getting The Truth On Trade?

“At the same time, tariffs would weigh on US growth. If we assume that Mexico and China retaliate with equivalent tariffs, this would substantially reduce demand for US exports, depressing US GDP by around 0.7pp by 2019. In fact, tariffs would likely hit US GDP so sharply that the Federal Reserve would be prompted to reduce interest rates to cushion the blow—despite an increase in inflation.”

“Run-For-Your-Life Affair” Continues In France, Fed’s Mester Hints At Hikes, US Vacations

“This weekend was an all-out, run-for-your-life affair.” That’s from Yves-Marie Cann, head of political studies at pollster Elabe, and it underscores just how smoothy things are going in France. That’s called sarcasm. I told you on Sunday that things were looking more tumultuous than ever on the French political scene, and that assessment has been underscored…