Late last month, I highlighted the latest data from the Dutch government planning agency CPB, which showed world trade contracted 1.5% in February from the previous month on the initial estimate.
The CPB publishes a World Trade Monitor every month on behalf of the European Commission.
Fast forward four weeks, and we have the data for March. (It takes two months for the figures to become available.) It's not particularly inspiring, even as it doesn't show a total debacle - yet. On a YoY basis, March's decline was 4.27%, the largest since the GFC by a long shot.
The revised data shows February's MoM contraction was just half of the previously reported 1.5% decline, but March's MoM decline (1.4%) means world trade shrank for three months straight headed into April.
One certainly imagines the picture will be considerably more bleak when the April estimates are available a month from now. "We expect a stronger decline in trade and production in April and May, in line with a tightening of COVID-19 measures in many regions", the CPB says.
They note vast disparities between regions for March.
"The downturn is particularly strong in Europe, with trade falling by more than 7% and
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