A Record-Shattering Collapse In US Trade And Globalization’s ‘Nail In The Coffin’ Moment

By now, we all know that global and trade commerce suffered a grievous blow from COVID-19 and the as

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3 thoughts on “A Record-Shattering Collapse In US Trade And Globalization’s ‘Nail In The Coffin’ Moment”

In scanning through the “Extreme scenarios and the peril of screwing it all up,” I didn’t find mention of USD denominated debt held by overseas entities. Another binary has got to be the USD….lower or higher six months from now? Get it wrong, and, well, it woutld suck.

Let’s just pick the middle of the WTO estimate and say trade shriks 22% in 2020. Shrinking trade is an ongoing trend. There’s no forecast of a V-bounce. Sure, not of all world trade is conducted in USD, but a heck of a lot is. How are entities going to be able to pay back, or even just service, their USD-denominated debts if there are fewer dollars earned? Leading the weaker USD side is the digital printing press that’s been getting all the ink.

Batman vs Superman, I guess, and hope we’re not wrong on which side we pick.