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The Sum Of All Fears: What Happens If All The Tail Risks Are Realized?
Predictably, trade risk is front and center again for markets after Thursday's news that Donald Trump has made time in his schedule for another farcical meeting with North Korea's Kim, but not for Xi Jinping ahead of the March deadline beyond which tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods are set to more than double to 25%.
Meanwhile, threats to global growth (not the least of which are the trade tensions) continue to proliferate and Thursday's EC forecast cuts underscore the notion that Italy
Putting aside the irony of Deutsche Bank postulating what a world will look like years from now when Deutsche Bank probably won’t exist, Fed Chairman Clarida and Treasury Secretary Jim Cramer would drop rates and reverse QT in order to combat the scourge of ‘asset deflation’ with printed money, a Labor-led coalition government under Jeremy Corbyn will negotiate a Norway-style relationship with the European Union, President Kamela Harris will use the authority given by Congress to reverse all of the Trump-era tariffs, and the Chinese government will use a combination of repression, a burning of reserves and surpluses, and a Greece-level jiggering of official numbers to paper over the largest credit bust in human history with free apartments given as a human right.
Kamala .. her name is Kamala.
yes, I really like her and did long before her announcement to run for office, but I am hoping it will end up being President Beto O’Rourke. Cannot commit until we see the full string of candidates. Those are my top two 🤓
And I have fat thumbs and a poor auto-correct. The larger points hold.
Putting a 5-10% probability on any of those seems overly sanguine