Revisiting The Subverted Perspective: Normalization Parallax
Back on December 24, we noted that there was at least one strategist on Wall Street who managed to "nail it" regarding where the S&P would end up by the close of 2018.
Deutsche Bank’s Aleksandar Kocic spent a good bit of time last year elaborating on the mechanics of the Fed’s efforts to restrike its put. Kocic's efforts in that regard date back to Q2 (at least) and he revisited the subject at regular intervals throughout the year. His discussions of that dynamic generally revolved arou
Thank you.
Lots of moving parts here… Good call also made by others using simpler logic. Always admire Kocic for the intellectual veracity. Can learn a lot from watching the interrelationships and thanks H… for interpretations without which I could not hope to grasp all/any of the nuances..
Wonder if Kocic can do this 3 out of 4 times ….
I’m gonna go out on a limb here and say what he says/writes is probably informing policy as opposed to simply describing/predicting
If the Fed isn’t already reading his work, they surely should!
The FED knows everything, and uses words like “transitory” to prove it.
Looking at Figure 31, my naive interpretation is that the fed either waited too long or figured it out too late to avoid a shock to the equity market.