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Jerome Powell Is Sorry, Not Sorry. What To Expect From The Fed Meeting
Jerome Powell is sorry - not sorry.
Emerging markets are crumbling and if you don't like hyperbole, then let's just call it "cracking."
Brazil is in trouble (it took a promise to "flood" the market with dollars to stem the BRL's declines on Friday after a truly harrowing crash towards 4.00 on Thursday), Turkey has hiked three times in three months (two LLW hikes and Thursday's hike under the simplified policy regime that was itself a crisis response, albeit long overdue), Argentina has been fo
By the end of June the consensus will be for 4+ total 2018 hikes. By the end of July, the consensus will be 2 hikes is enough. We’ll probably get 3 with the 3rd being in Nov or Dec.
Exiting 2018, the call will be for 4+ total hikes in 2019. We’ll likely get 1 in Q1 which will be the straw that breaks the EM’s back. Earnings recession followed by mini recession through 2020, then the upward march resumes.