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Bombs Away.

War? Let's hope so! Happy Monday!

Markets probably could have done without Netanyahu’s “Iran lied big time” presentation on Monday.

People are nervous enough about Trump’s May 12 decision on the nuclear deal as it is and there’s no shortage of data to trade on and digest this week, so I’m not sure “Iranian devils hid 55,000 pages of secret docs pertaining to nuclear bombs” counts as “kicking off the week on a positive note”. You can watch some videos at the linked post above, but really, this is about all you need to know about the presentation:

Needless to say, crude spiked as soon as the Iran headlines starting crossing:


As a reminder, crude has risen in seven of the last eight months and is sitting near fresh three-year highs as geopolitical jitters and ongoing uncertainty about the supply/demand picture underpin despite the resurgent dollar:


This comes amid Macron’s ongoing efforts to try and preserve the deal. He and Rouhani chatted about things over the weekend and according to a readout, reiterated their desire to preserve and strengthen relations between Tehran and Paris. A statement from Rouhani’s office also said the two leaders discussed the importance of the Iran deal as a foundation for trust between the West and Iran. One imagines the Iranians aren’t particularly pleased with France’s role in recent strikes on regime targets in Syria.

Trump apparently talked to Macron on Monday as well about “developments concerning Syria and Iran” (there was no mention of “dandruff”). 

In any event, the energy ETF got a lift from all of this, but ultimately the gains proved fleeting:


Treasurys bull flattened on the session, as 10Y yields came down further from recent highs above 3%:


BBG’s Brian Chappatta proposes the following “then versus now” comparison re: 3% on 10s:


The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is officially on target, hitting 2% Y/Y in March:


This is fun, out from Treasury on Monday:

During the January – March 2018 quarter, Treasury borrowed $488 billion in privately-held net marketable debt and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $290 billion.

That $488 billion is a record for the period.

Stocks eked out a monthly gain in April, snapping a two month losing streak:


This was the best month for the dollar since November 2016 (i.e., the best month since the election):


Tough month for the ruble, as sanctions deep-sixed Russian assets a couple of weeks back:


Finally, for your moment of zen, two things. First, Mike Huckabee hilarity:


And second, a well-deserved salute:




3 comments on “Bombs Away.

  1. 15 year old documents. Nothingburger

    • Anonymous

      Due to his personality, it will be the risk of Trump being manipulated by Fox and a Friends , and Netanyahu. To fool the voters is the easy part.

  2. Anonymous

    Sarah has it hard enough. Id stick it to Trump. Give a empathy for Baron theme. That is real enough.

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