Jeff Gundlach Unveils Groundbreaking Theory: Says Stocks May Fall If 10Y Yields Rise Above 3%

Listen, I don’t think I need to tell you this, but Jeff Gundlach is a guy who has shit figured out, ok?

And last year, he was sick and tired of just sitting idly by while the rest of us idiots fumbled around in the dark in search of “truth.”

So what Jeff did was, he started a Twitter account and as his handle, he chose @TruthGundlach.

See it occurred to Jeff that when it comes to fighting “fake news” (and especially fake Gundlach news, which he swears to Christ is actually a thing), the only thing he needed to do was make “Gundlach” synonymous with “truth”. Because the “truth” cannot (by very definition), “lie”.

So if “truth” = “Gundlach”, well then “Gundlach” = “truth”, ergo everything that comes from that Twitter handle is true by its very nature.

And it’s a good thing Jeff cleared that up right off the bat, because starting pretty much immediately after he took the plunge into the Twitterverse he commenced to saying some crazy-sounding shit like, for instance:

asserting that the Wall Street Journal is conspiring against him;
making up absurd nicknames for people (“the alliteration twins“);
accusing Bloomberg of randomly inserting his name in stories where it doesn’t belong in order to generate clicks;
calling himself “Seinfeld“;
and best of all, claiming that contrary to popular belief, there’s more to do in Buffalo than “jerk off“.

On August 17, Jeff lost his shit completely, tweeting out a series of cryptic threats and laments about “scorpions” and “souls”, prompting one incredulous follower to ask “what the hell is going on over there?”

More recently, Jeff has gotten back to tweeting about markets and earlier this month, we detailed the extent to which he seems to have cracked the cross-asset Da Vinci Code. To wit:

Let’s review:

rising 2Y yields PLUS
a (nearly) oversold long bond PLUS
a shaky-looking high yield ETF PLUS
a stubborn ass VIX PLUS
“nutty” stories EQUALS
“risk.”

Here’s a regular John Nash!

Well, in case that “equation” wasn’t good enough for you in terms of guiding your asset allocation strategy (or in case your Excel model is having trouble figuring out how to quantify “nutty narratives”), Jeff was back droppin’ knowledge on Tuesday in his latest DoubleLine webcast.

Now as you’re aware, Jeff is someone who isn’t going to tell you something you already know or otherwise just spout some nebulous bullshit, which is why he delivered this stunningly unorthodox take on rates and stocks:

My idea that the S&P would go down on the year would become an extraordinarily strong conviction as the 10-year starts to make an accelerated move above 3 percent.

Got that? Jeff’s “idea” – because no one else thinks equities might “go down” this year – would go from concept to “strong conviction” if 10Y yields rise rapidly beyond 3%.

Literally no one has said anything like that lately and by “literally no one” we of course mean “literally everyone.”

But that wasn’t all Jeff had to offer when it came to profound predictions. Here are some other highlights via Bloomberg:

The U.S. deficit is likely to exceed $1.1 trillion in fiscal 2019 because of a combination of tax cuts and rising entitlement expenses. “It’s going to be more like $1.2 or $1.3 trillion,” he said.
Leading economic indicators show no signs of a recession within the next 12 months.
Core inflation is likely to increase above the Fed’s 2 percent target.
Be prepared for further weakening of the dollar. “The odds are good that the next big move in the dollar is lower,” he said.

Again, all of that is new and it’s all contrarian. I’m sifting through all the research at my disposal and for the life of me, I can’t find anyone, anywhere who has done the deficit math or who doesn’t think the U.S. economy is about to plunge into a recession and I certainly can’t find anyone who is bearish on the dollar.

This is some next level-type shit man.

But hey, are you really surprised?

I mean, after all, we’re talking about a guy who can find more to do in Buffalo than “jerk off” – if that doesn’t demonstrate a super-human ability to think outside the box, then I don’t know what does.

“Go Bills!”