Listen, there’s really only one thing you need to understand on Monday and that’s this: “the state of our union is incredible”.
And if you don’t believe me, here’s White House Press Secretary (and aggravated plum in makeup) Sarah Huckabee Sanders:
Q: What is the state of the Union today?
Press Sec. Sanders: "I think it's incredible." pic.twitter.com/WrU1skpXcX
— NBC News (@NBCNews) January 29, 2018
Got that? I mean sure, this time last year we had a thriving democracy and now we’ve got a raging dumpster fire, but outside of the whole democracy ——->> autocracy shift, everything is going “incredible”.
Also, Sanders wants you to know that the person who is working from 11:00-ish a.m. to 4:30-ish p.m. to make our union “incredible” had nothing to do with Andrew McCabe stepping down from his post as FBI deputy director:
- TRUMP WASN’T PART OF DECISION PROCESS FOR MCCABE EXIT: SANDERS
I mean sure, if you word search Trump’s Twitter history for “McCabe” you get this:
But he had nothing to do with it, ok? “Believe me.”
Speaking of the State of the Union, here’s a little preview of what you can expect:
- TRUMP SPEECH GUESTS TO INCL. PARENTS OF KIDS KILLED BY MS-13
As noted earlier today, that’s a marked improvement from what we imagine Fox would tell you if you asked them who would have been at Hillary’s first State of the Union:
that's as opposed to Hillary, whose leaked State of the Union plans included guest appearances by al-Zawahiri, Scar from Lion King, Lex Luther, and Count Dracula.
— Walter White (@heisenbergrpt) January 29, 2018
As far as markets go, it was all about bonds today which should come as no surprise given what’s on deck. 10Y yields hit their highest since April 2014 early in the day before Treasurys pared losses after Monday’s econ data:
Eventually, the bond selloff is going to hit equities hard and you should probably try and glean a little something from this chart:
In fact, “eventually” might well have been “today” because it certainly looked as though the Treasury selloff was weighing on sentiment with all the major indices lower and the VIX up notably to a 13 handle:
Bunds are selling off as well with 5Y yields now at their highest since 2015 – all the way up to a “juicy” 0:
The dollar finally responded to the move higher in yields, posting only its second day of gains in six:
EURUSD fell as much as 0.7% at one point, before trimming losses. A dovish ECB story helped arrest the relentless rally in the single currency.
This was the worst day for the emerging market ETF in more than a month as rising DM yields and the dollar rebound weighed:
Gold and oil were both down (dollar rebound weighing on them as well):
Oh, and Bitcoin investors haven’t extrapolated anything from the Coincheck NEM theft:
Finally, for your moment of zen, here’s Sarah Huckabee Sanders again and this clip finds her acting out what amounts to a commercial for the State of the Union address, noting that it will “obviously, be must-watch TV”:
— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) January 29, 2018