‘Increasingly Confident’
If the Fed’s concerned about their financial conditions reflexivity predicament, they aren’t showing it. Chris
Deep Thoughts On The American Consumer
A gauge of US consumer expectations still points to recession over the next 12 months.
US Home Prices Hit New Records In Late Summer
US home price gains accelerated in September, according to updates on two key national gauges
‘This Can’t Be What They Had In Mind’: Reflexivity On Parade
I’ve been on (and on) about the Fed’s financial conditions reflexivity problem. The dynamic is
Adventures In The Vol-Scape
During the three-month selloff in US equities from August to October, AUM growth for ETFs
Narrating The ‘Everything Ripper’
If you have even a passing interest in markets, macro and monetary policy (and if
CTAs: A ‘Tail’ Of Two Drawdowns
If you’re searching for the quintessential manifestation of the macro-policy about-face behind November’s “everything rally”
Black Holes And Red Pills
I generally eschew the temptation to editorialize around Elon Musk’s adventures in “red pill” Wonderland.
New Home Prices Plunge Most Ever
New home sales fell more than expected in the US last month, the first of
The $6 Trillion Question
“Cash” had a helluva year. Perhaps you’re aware. Every week, I editorialize around the latest
Will Higher Rates Ever Matter For Big Business Bottom Lines?
Here’s an idea: Equities have already priced in the drag from a higher cost of
Inflation Updates Offer Litmus Test For 2024 Rate Cut Bets
Inflation updates from both the US and Europe top the macro agenda in the new
The Peril Of Ukraine Fatalism
Mainstream commentary around the war in Ukraine comes across as increasingly (and perhaps unduly) fatalistic
How Long Before The Fed Faces Reserve Scarcity?
A few days ago, I mentioned that RRP drain had likely started the clock on
Long Cash!
Another week, another new record for money market fund assets. Money funds took in $29.12
Sentiment Shift Drives $50 Billion Flow Bonanza To US Stock Funds
US-focused equity ETFs and mutual funds scored another big inflow over the latest weekly reporting
Germany At Risk Of Two-Year Stagnation Amid Court Ruling, Debt Charade
Germany is in a tough spot. Data released on Friday confirmed the world’s fourth-largest economy
Wilders. In A Landslide
“They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people,” Donald Trump said
Interest Expense, Debt And A.I.: What Corporate America Is Talking About
Every quarter, once the verdict is in on earnings season, Goldman publishes an “S&P 500
Hedge Fund ‘Crowding’ Hits Record Amid Mega-Cap Rally
Earlier this week, in one of the dailies, I included a chart depicting record hedge
Bears, Bulls And The 1950s Parallel
The profit recession for corporate America ended in Q3. EPS growth was around 4% last
The Term Premium Is Negative Again
It’s official. Or as official as it can be considering we’re talking about something that’s
Hostages, Prisoners And Poets
“He was interrogated and he was actually beaten.” That’s a quote from a family friend
Jobless Claims Continue To Vex Recession Calls
Jobless claims in the US steadfastly refuse to cooperate with, let alone corroborate, recession narratives.
Popular Strategist Reveals Top 10 Trades For 2024
On Tuesday, BofA’s Savita Subramanian made the case for S&P 5,000 in 2024. Suffice to say
Nvidia Says A.I. Revolution Proceeding Apace
I’d say “not surprisingly,” but I guess that doesn’t quite work given that beats versus
Fed Minutes Repeat Familiar Talking Points
“There has been surprisingly little reaction thus far.” So said one observer following the release
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