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Featured

‘Let The Oil Flow!’ Again!

September 22, 2026
  • There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

    September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Stocks’ Advice On Tariff Man: Just Ignore Him

July 21, 2025July 23, 2025

Equity investors, for better or worse, have stopped listening to Donald Trump’s tariff threats. The

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1 Comment on Stocks’ Advice On Tariff Man: Just Ignore Him

What Do Trump, Bessent And Warsh Have In Mind For The Fed?

July 21, 2025July 22, 2025

The writing’s on the wall, and it’s so large by now that Stevie Wonder could

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8 Comments on What Do Trump, Bessent And Warsh Have In Mind For The Fed?

Powell Persecution Is Martin Niemöller Moment For Wall Street

July 21, 2025July 22, 2025

Nobody has to “explain” anything to Donald Trump. Not you, not me and certainly not

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7 Comments on Powell Persecution Is Martin Niemöller Moment For Wall Street

The Japan Canary

July 20, 2025July 22, 2025

“I continue to have a number of duties I must fulfill for the nation,” Shigeru

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2 Comments on The Japan Canary

ECB Takes Center Stage As Tariff Clock Ticks

July 20, 2025July 21, 2025

This’ll be a pretty light week on the data front in the US, which is

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Watch Tokyo

July 20, 2025July 21, 2025

We may have a problem in Tokyo. Last week, I contextualized another steep selloff in

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1 Comment on Watch Tokyo

‘Who’ To Thank For Stocks’ Blind Eye To Powell Drama

July 19, 2025July 21, 2025

I try to strike a healthy balance between characterizing (“caricaturing” is probably more apt on

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6 Comments on ‘Who’ To Thank For Stocks’ Blind Eye To Powell Drama

Sorry, Chris. He’s Still Not Going To Pick You

July 18, 2025July 20, 2025

Poor Chris Waller. If there’s anything more pathetic than a man pandering to another man

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3 Comments on Sorry, Chris. He’s Still Not Going To Pick You

When You’re In A Hole, Stop Building

July 18, 2025July 20, 2025

The first rule of holes is that when you’re in one, you stop digging. US

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2 Comments on When You’re In A Hole, Stop Building

US Households Offer No All-Clear For Trump

July 18, 2025July 19, 2025

After soaring in June on hopes the Trump administration will ultimately settle for less draconian

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The Man Who Would Have A Palace

July 18, 2025July 20, 2025

I realize this goes without saying, but the Trump administration’s characterization of renovations to the

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9 Comments on The Man Who Would Have A Palace

Nihilists, Dude

July 17, 2025

Much has been made of the idea that retail investors comprise a bigger share of

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2 Comments on Nihilists, Dude

It’s Too Early To Fade US Stock Melt-Up, Popular Strategist Says

July 17, 2025July 19, 2025

We’re in inning seven of the current equity market melt-up, which is to say it

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3 Comments on It’s Too Early To Fade US Stock Melt-Up, Popular Strategist Says

US Homebuilders Remain Depressed As Price Cuts Proliferate

July 17, 2025July 18, 2025

Did you hear the good news? That “big, beautiful,” budget-busting regressive tax cut Republicans just

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Wall Street Blissfully Ignorant Of Fed’s Erdogan Risk

July 17, 2025July 18, 2025

“Let’s be honest, Fed independence is a myth.” So said some guy in the sales

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6 Comments on Wall Street Blissfully Ignorant Of Fed’s Erdogan Risk

Plunging Jobless Claims, Robust Retail Sales Argue Against Rate Cuts

July 17, 2025July 18, 2025

Do you want a roaring economy or do you want rate cuts? Because you can’t

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Impugn The Imputation?

July 16, 2025July 16, 2025

If the question’s whether we can trust the inflation data, the answer is, was and

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3 Comments on Impugn The Imputation?

The End Of Fed Independence May Be Nigh

July 16, 2025July 17, 2025

Well, it was inevitable. And even saying that’s a testament to just how far afield

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19 Comments on The End Of Fed Independence May Be Nigh

Wholesale Inflation Negligible In The US

July 16, 2025July 17, 2025

Wednesday’s only tradable US macro update sent mixed messages about pipeline price pressure. On the

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6 Comments on Wholesale Inflation Negligible In The US

It’s Raining Money In Goldman’s Equities Business

July 16, 2025July 17, 2025

As you might imagine given the volatility on display at the beginning of the quarter,

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Bank Of America Remains Going Concern, Results Suggest

July 16, 2025July 17, 2025

Bank of America on Wednesday reported trading results that easily topped estimates, and like JPMorgan

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And The Most Crowded Trade Is…

July 15, 2025

Quick: What’s the most crowded trade on the planet? This is an easy one. You

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1 Comment on And The Most Crowded Trade Is…

Burning Questions

July 15, 2025July 16, 2025

Are stocks a bubble? Is it too late to jump aboard the moving train? Did

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9 Comments on Burning Questions

Smart Money Hasn’t Been This Bullish Since Trump Was Good For Stocks

July 15, 2025July 16, 2025

Fund managers haven’t been this bullish since they were under the impression that Donald Trump

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3 Comments on Smart Money Hasn’t Been This Bullish Since Trump Was Good For Stocks

Economists Wrong Again As Core Inflation Tame Despite Tariffs

July 15, 2025July 16, 2025

“LOWER THE RATE!” Shouted a livid Donald Trump, somewhere. Underlying price growth undershot expectations again

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7 Comments on Economists Wrong Again As Core Inflation Tame Despite Tariffs

Things Are Going Just Fine At JPMorgan, Thank You Very Much

July 15, 2025July 16, 2025

The House of Dimon marked the unofficial start of earnings season in the US on

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Chinese Economy On Track To Hit Growth Target, Beijing Swears

July 14, 2025July 15, 2025

Surprise! The Chinese economy expanded fast enough in Q2 to keep the full-year growth target

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • derek on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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