The Stoic

Bland. Measured. Patient. Calm. Xanax.

Those are all words you might toss around while describing Jerome Powell’s press conference on Wednesday.

If he didn’t have any benzodiazepines in his system to help take the edge off what could’ve been an arduous repartee with reporters, Powell’s a better Stoic than me.

The post-FOMC Q&A went well, particularly under the circumstances. The press corps did its part by not demanding too much of Powell in terms of questions about Donald Trump’s brazen efforts to remake the Fed in the image of MAGA’s aggressive economic populism.

Wall Street Journal “Fed whisperer” Nick Timiraos wondered if economic conditions in the US still warrant restrictive policy a nod, perhaps, to the fact that the new dot plot, however dovish for the remainder of 2025, suggests rates will remain moderately restrictive through next year. Powell obfuscated and emphasized Wednesday’s cut was another step towards neutral.

Asked by Timiraos how seriously a 50bps cut was considered at the September meeting, Powell essentially said it wasn’t. Considered. “There wasn’t widespread support at all” for an upsized cut, he said. Stephen Miran, then, wasn’t anywhere close to convincing Chris Waller and Miki Bowman.

In response to a question from The New York Times‘s Colby Smith, Powell described Wednesday’s decision as a “risk management cut,” a characterization which appeared to undermine equities. Perhaps sensing he’d said something “wrong,” Powell quickly noted that the labor market’s “really cooling off.” The Fed remains committed to returning inflation to 2%, but since April, upside risks to inflation have lessened “a little,” he said.

Bloomberg’s Michael McKee impolitely pointed out that the Fed keeps projecting a return to 2% inflation but never gets there. Is that, perhaps, evidence that 2% isn’t attainable, he wondered. “We don’t know where the economy will be in three years,” Powell responded. “The nature of the [SEP] exercise is to write down policy that you think will return inflation to [target] over the [forecast] horizon.”

CNBC’s Steve Liesman used his time to ask if, the lower 2025 dot notwithstanding, the Fed’s still taking a meeting-to-meeting approach. Powell suggested “meeting-by-meeting” is in fact the best way to describe the Fed’s current mode. The SEP’s not a plan, he said, adding that the dot math was a close call between tipping two more cuts this year versus just one.

Liesman followed up on that latter point. “Is the dispersion in the outlook a sign of uncertainty?” he wondered. The risks, Powell said, are two-sided, which means “there’s no risk-free path.”

Politico ‘s Victoria Guida asked about Trump. Because someone had to. “As markets have questions about what exactly President Trump’s intentions are with the Fed, what would you point to as the things they should be watching to determine that the Fed is still making decisions based on the economic outlook rather than political considerations?” she asked.

“Look, it’s deeply in our culture to do our work based on the incoming data and never consider anything else. That’s just — everybody at the Fed really feels strongly about that,” Powell said, adding,

So, you know, you’ll know it by the way we talk about what we’re doing, by the speeches that people give, by the decisions that we make. We don’t frame these decisions at all or see them in terms of political outcomes. When you get to another part of Washington, everything is seen through the lens of does it help or hurt this political party or this politician. I think people find it hard to believe that that’s just not at all how we think about things.

Asked by Guida if Lisa Cook’s lawsuit against Trump is “related to questions about Fed independence,” Powell said it’s a court case and as such it’d be “inappropriate” for him to comment.


 

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6 thoughts on “The Stoic

  1. One good thing about the Fed lowering interest rates is mortgage rates may be coming down. Hopefully now I can sell my home so my family and I can escape from Trump’s dictatorship before its too late to flee the country.

  2. From the press conference it almost seemed like Powell (or the group) basically made Miran sit in the corner and eat a jelly donut while the group went about their business. This showed up in the three mandates question, too. Not that it will matter in less than a year, but I did chuckle.

    1. Had the same feeling. Counted on 50 bps cut and was surprised to see this outcome. Hilarious that they ganged up and came to this decision. They might have stronger spines than I expected. Hope it lasts.

  3. “Powell said it’s a court case and as such it’d be “inappropriate” for him to comment.” Trump would NEVER let inappropriateness stand in the way of his SCREAMING a comment or two.

  4. Powell emphasized the very weak hiring and that a labor market with no hiring and no firing is just a increase in firing away from a high unemployment rate. I’m paraphrasing of course, but with the rate of large layoffs as companies “protect their margins” – looking at you, aggressively-RIFing-MSFT and quietly-restructuring-ORCL – and deferred Federal layoffs, that risk seems not small.

    On the inflation front, Powell “pointed the finger” with his discussion of how the long trend of goods disinflation has flipped to tariff-driven inflation. The written comment that tariff-driven inflation may be a one-time event didn’t get much airtime in the presser. My speculation is that the committee may think a deteriorating job market may bring services disinflation, and until then inflation at 3%, while above target, isn’t high enough to sacrifice employment.

    Interesting that the two dissenters for 25 at the previous meeting weren’t inclined to join Miran in dissenting for 50. Since everyone knows Miran is a stooge, this was effectively a unanimous decision. Waller giving up his hopes to be the next Chair, or is the reputational damage of siding with The Stooge that great?

    I’m thinking two more cuts by year end.

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