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The Stoic
Bland. Measured. Patient. Calm. Xanax.
Those are all words you might toss around while describing J
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I’d add: “confident” to the list of adjectives describing Powell.
One good thing about the Fed lowering interest rates is mortgage rates may be coming down. Hopefully now I can sell my home so my family and I can escape from Trump’s dictatorship before its too late to flee the country.
From the press conference it almost seemed like Powell (or the group) basically made Miran sit in the corner and eat a jelly donut while the group went about their business. This showed up in the three mandates question, too. Not that it will matter in less than a year, but I did chuckle.
Had the same feeling. Counted on 50 bps cut and was surprised to see this outcome. Hilarious that they ganged up and came to this decision. They might have stronger spines than I expected. Hope it lasts.
“Powell said it’s a court case and as such it’d be “inappropriate” for him to comment.” Trump would NEVER let inappropriateness stand in the way of his SCREAMING a comment or two.
Powell emphasized the very weak hiring and that a labor market with no hiring and no firing is just a increase in firing away from a high unemployment rate. I’m paraphrasing of course, but with the rate of large layoffs as companies “protect their margins” – looking at you, aggressively-RIFing-MSFT and quietly-restructuring-ORCL – and deferred Federal layoffs, that risk seems not small.
On the inflation front, Powell “pointed the finger” with his discussion of how the long trend of goods disinflation has flipped to tariff-driven inflation. The written comment that tariff-driven inflation may be a one-time event didn’t get much airtime in the presser. My speculation is that the committee may think a deteriorating job market may bring services disinflation, and until then inflation at 3%, while above target, isn’t high enough to sacrifice employment.
Interesting that the two dissenters for 25 at the previous meeting weren’t inclined to join Miran in dissenting for 50. Since everyone knows Miran is a stooge, this was effectively a unanimous decision. Waller giving up his hopes to be the next Chair, or is the reputational damage of siding with The Stooge that great?
I’m thinking two more cuts by year end.