Margin Risk, Not Valuations, Is Biggest Source Of Stock Uncertainty
One argument against the idea that Donald Trump’s tariffs will manifest in higher consumer prices
Should You Fear Narrow Markets And ‘Euphoric’ Valuations?
Regular readers know I have a love-hate relationship with narrow market laments. The same’s true
Meanwhile, In Japan…
Japan’s often described as a kind of paragon when it comes to the contention that
With Trump’s Help, China Racks Up Record Trade Surplus
So much “winning.” How can you stand it? Draconian US tariffs and pressure on America’s
‘The Currency And Bond Market Can Collapse’: Powell Exit Fears Spread
Late last week, I said big banks need to begin pondering the consequences and fallout
Warsh, Hassett Escalate Powell Witch Hunt
Donald Trump’s not going to fire Jerome Powell. That’s according to, uh, Donald Trump. “No,”
Where’s The Tariff Inflation?
It’s a pretty busy week in the US, where traders will parse key inflation updates,
Trump’s Impossible Tariff Math
What fiscal crisis? The US ran a surprise surplus in June, according to the monthly
Gold And The Sinking Dollar Ship
Gold. It’s — umm — shiny. I’ll say that for it. Whenever I run out
One Bank Goes There: ‘What If Powell Leaves?’
After this week, Wall Street’s obliged to seriously consider the possibility that Jerome Powell might
Code Red As Russ Vought Goes After Jerome Powell
The US is venturing into very, very dark waters vis-à-vis central bank independence. On Thursday,
The Problem With A Buyback-Dependent Equity Market
Dividend yields for US stocks are nearing levels last seen a quarter century ago around
Birds Of A Feather
Tariffs can fix anything. Even the legal troubles of your friends abroad. Donald Trump’s a
Plunging Jobless Claims Rebut Rate-Cut Calls
The US labor market’s fine. “Solid.” “Resilient.” Any synonym for “sturdy” will work. Thursday’s sole
‘Too Late’?
I’m not much for stating the self-evident. It seems like a waste of time. Mine
Hedge When You Can, Not When You Have To
You hedge downside when you can, not when you have to. That was the friendly
Leaving Wolf’s Lair
“Is this about Adolf? Because we can always dial down the Adolf.” Linda Yaccarino on
Some Folks Bought Some Homes
They were buying homes in America over the last week. I don’t know who “they”
Chinese Economy Continues To Ice Over
China’s still struggling to resuscitate domestic demand. In case that was your burning question mid-week.
Central Banks Were Polled On Trump Risks. The Results Were Terrifying
“We should get somebody in there that’s going to lower interest rates,” Donald Trump said
What Could Go Wrong? Summer 2025 Edition
What could go wrong? Snarky macro commentators with misplaced pretensions to cleverness are quite fond
BofA Lifts S&P Target. Apologizes For ‘Underestimating Corporate America’
Early Tuesday, while editorializing around Goldman’s new year-end S&P target, I wrote that other house
Market Breadth Warnings Are Back
We’re back to fretting over market breadth. It’s an all-too-familiar concern for US equities, and
Goldman’s Kostin Knows How To Play The Game
If you’re a sell-sider with responsibility for the official house S&P call, there’s really only
As America Hits ‘Debt Wall,’ Get Ready For Shorter Cycles
What happens to business cycles when fiscal policy’s constrained such that it can’t act as
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