The September FOMC meeting isn’t the only event on the macro docket this week, although it’ll probably seem like it.

I previewed the Fed gathering across two articles, one covering the politics, the other covering the policy. You really should peruse those pieces. They’re required reading ahead of Wednesday’s rates decision.

Not that it’ll be decisive for policymakers, but the Fed will get one more key US macro update ahead of the deliberations: Retail sales data covering last month is due out Tuesday morning.

Consensus expects to hear that the pace of nominal spending growth decelerated to 0.3% in August from 0.5% in July and a blistering 0.9% in June.

As discussed in the linked articles mentioned above, a half-point cut from the Fed is on the table this week. But my intuition is that the (three) policymakers who might be inclined to go for 50bps have already made up their minds, and the same’s true for those opposed to an upsized move.

In other words: Barring a huge (i.e., multi-sigma) downside miss to consensus, I don’t think the nominal spending update will be pivotal. That said, the control group will be eyed as usual by those keen to refine their Q3 GDP estimates. The Atlanta Fed’s popular GDPNow model is tracking 3.1%.

Eventually, the combination of slower hiring (or even net firing) and stubborn inflation should weigh on spending. But betting against the American consumer can be a frustrating experience. Americans are addicted to consumption. Being out of a job and short on money isn’t sufficient to dissuade addicts. Not initially, anyway.

In addition to the spending release, the first of this month’s housing updates are due, starting with builder sentiment (seen printing a woeful 33, which would mark a 17th straight month below the threshold separating net optimism from pessimism) on Tuesday and continuing with starts and permits on Wednesday. Claims will be watched (very) closely on Thursday in light of last week’s Texas-driven surge.

Elsewhere, the BoE is seen holding rates following last month’s cut. I realize BoE decisions don’t make for the most exciting reading, but recall that the August MPC meeting was the silliest (i.e., most fraught) gathering since the bank secured its independence nearly 30 years ago. If nothing else, the September proceedings should be good for a laugh in that context. The BoJ will likewise keep rates on hold Friday ahead of next month’s LDP decision on who’ll replace Shigeru Ishiba.

Oh, and in Beijing the BLS NBS will tell markets what Xi Jinping wants us to believe about retail sales and industrial output in China, where local equities are up 12% since the beginning of August, 25% since the “Liberation Day” lows and 43% since this time last year, when the Party made a bunch of stimulus promises it largely failed to keep.