Jobless claims in the US are still rising!

Jobless claims in the US just spiked to the highest in nearly four years!

Jobless claims in the US just posted one of their largest weekly increases of the post-pandemic era!

All of that’s true. But not. True because at 263,000, the initial filers print for the week ended September 6 did in fact rise a second week and a third in four. True because 263,000 does in fact count as that highest since October of 2021. And true because the 27,000 week-to-week increase was quite pronounced.

There’s the chart. The four-week average is now 240,500, the highest since June 28.

So, what’s not true about Thursday’s alarmist US jobless claims headlines?

Rather than answer the question directly, I implore readers to note that the 27,000 week-to-week spike on the initial filers headline looked pretty pronounced even in the context of a labor market we all know is weakening. And the data captured a US holiday.

As I’m always keen to emphasize, whenever you see something that looks like an anomaly, it’s probably anomalous. That’s a variation on the duck rule: If it looks and quacks like a duck, it’s almost always a duck.

Sure enough, a quick look at the state-by-state breakdown showed an enormous spike for Texas. Have a look:

As the figure shows, unadjusted claims in the state nearly doubled over the week.

I don’t pretend to know what’s behind that. I’m sure there’s an explanation. What I do know is that it suggests Thursday’s claims readout should be taken with a grain of salt.

That’s obviously not to suggest all’s well in the US labor market. It plainly isn’t. It’s just to say this particular release is a throwaway.