Reckless Mischief

Drones. Vladimir Putin’s got ’em to burn thanks in part to Iranian generosity.

UAVs are a fixture of the war in Ukraine. Both sides deploy them regularly against the other, and on Wednesday, Putin deployed a few against — or, more accurately, above — Poland.

Let me just say, up front, that for all the hand-wringing, this was either mischief on The Kremlin’s part or a mistake.

That’s not to downplay the episode, but then again, it kinda is. It’s not uncommon for Russian aircraft to kiss NATO airspace nor is it rare for Russian drones to fly over Poland. Hell, it happened at least twice last week.

Wednesday was, however, the first time NATO warplanes (in this case Polish and Dutch fighter jets) downed Russian drones over alliance territory. In fact, it was the first time NATO fighters engaged enemy targets in any allied airspace. That’s a conversation starter, which is why Poland invoked Article 4.

Article 4 can be, but in this case isn’t, a prelude to the invocation of Article 5, also known as the end of the world. Article 4 merely convenes alliance members for a formal discussion about a security threat. Specifically, it stipulates that the alliance has to “consult together” any time a member judges their “territorial integrity, political independence or security” to be under threat.

If you’re curious, there are eight historical instances of Article 4 invocation, including at the onset of Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine three and a half years ago.

The Kremlin and also Belarus, from which at least some of the drones flew, downplayed Wednesday’s drama. Indeed, Alexander Lukashenko’s army chief said Poland was informed ahead of time that drones were likely to veer into Polish airspace due to Ukraine’s efforts to electronically jam the UAVs.

Needless to say, you can’t trust anything that comes out of the regime in Minsk. Judging from what scattered reporting was available, the UAVs in question were surveillance drones. Russia was testing NATOs response time. And also the alliance’s willingness to shoot the drones down.

Donald Tusk called the situation “a large-scale provocation.” Mark Rutte, who’s proving to be more adept at playing to Donald Trump’s childlike proclivities and insecurities than any Western politician save perhaps the late Shinzo Abe (and remember: “Western” isn’t a geographic term in these sorts of contexts), chided Moscow. “It is absolutely reckless,” he said, in the course of beseeching Putin. “Stop the war. Stop escalating. Stop violating allied airspace.” (“Vladimir, STOP!“)

The incursion came just days after the Kremlin launched hundreds of Iranian-made drones at cities across Ukraine in what officials in Kyiv described as the largest such attack of the war. In addition to the exploding UAVs, Russia’s aerial barrage on September 7 included more than a dozen ballistic and cruise missiles, most of which pierced Ukraine’s defenses. For the first time, Russia hit a building in Kyiv’s government district not far from Volodymyr Zelensky’s office.

If nothing else, Wednesday’s theatrics were yet another example of Putin mocking Trump’s hapless efforts to end the conflict, including the much-ballyhooed, but ultimately fruitless, “summit” in Alaska.

I’m not sure if this has dawned on Trump yet — I actually suspect it has — but Putin has no regard whatever for this White House nor any other White House, just like he has no more respect for Trump than he did for any other US president.

Earlier this week, Trump reportedly floated joint US-EU tariffs of 100% on China and India as a way of pressuring Moscow. That, even as he continues to suggest a willingness to engage with Narendra Modi who, so far anyway, isn’t backing down despite 50% trade levies aimed at punishing New Delhi for buying discounted Russian crude.

Trump was aggrieved last week when Modi made a show of his affection for Putin while the two men were in China for the annual Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit. Two days later, Putin joined Xi Jinping and Kim Jong-un in Beijing for an elaborate military parade of the sort Trump tried (and mostly failed), to put on in D.C. earlier this year.

In the same Wednesday remarks, Rutte reiterated the hackneyed line people like Mark always use while berating Putin. “We stand ready [to] defend every inch of NATO territory,” he said. I feel better already.


 

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5 thoughts on “Reckless Mischief

  1. So I’ve seen sources I regularly follow claim the ~19 drones that reached up to ~300 km into Poland included one or more of the model Geran-2, essentially a poor man’s cruise missile: https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lyhqutyc7k2f

    Not that it matters much I guess. The drones were possibly intended to arrive in Ukraine with the path planned to shortcut through Poland.

    This incident does fit a frequent pattern of Russia gradually testing nearby NATO countries through hybrid operations: They learn how hard they can hit without getting hit back, they learn of NATO’s response capabilities, and gradually the image of NATO as a guarantor of security is eroded, whilst conversely marketing Russia’s power (especially for their domestic audience).

    Mischief? I guess that’s one label. Mistake? I think that’s quite unlikely.

      1. Never it would be Russia alone vs the entirety of NATO with Putin at the helm, he is not an idiot and is not going to get trapped like that, particularly after his Ukraine mistake.

        He’s in the process of mapping NATO’s response function. He wants to erode Article 5 and thus the main selling point of NATO, so he would go for a weak link. The Baltic states are excellent pressure points.

        The risk (for what would falsely be seen as a regional armed conflict in the Baltic area even as it is a wider plan of Putin’s) is more something like: Russia + North Korea + Chinese industry vs part of Europe + ad hoc US industry support. With some reprieve for Russia’s industry fully directed to war production and some more time to train higher equality troops that would be proper dangerous.

        The other scenario is the timing of a Taiwan invasion with an attack by Russia. This is very much a fluid situation though, as what Russia will or will not do is entirely dependent on what the situation in Ukraine is like.

        Note that Europe would be quite happy to get 10-20 years of preparation. Putin has no real reason to wait beyond the immediate term.

  2. The Norwegian eletcion Monday strengthened NATO and the West, bringing Jens Stoltenberg, 4 times head of NATO, into the new strong government. Norway also beefed up its arctic force with 10 new U.K. built submarine hunting ships to its Navy over the next 10 years. Norway plans to dominate the north up to Svalbard. Putin is being outflanked – Stare is thrusting back at Patin.

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