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Featured

‘Let The Oil Flow!’ Again!

September 22, 2026September 22, 2026
  • There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

    September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Fiat Money And The Bonds

July 7, 2025July 8, 2025

How bad of an investment are bonds? I’m not making an especially profound observation when

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3 Comments on Fiat Money And The Bonds

How Seriously Should We Take Elon Musk’s ‘America Party’?

July 7, 2025July 8, 2025

On a lot of levels, Elon Musk’s an unserious person. So, even if he’s serious

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19 Comments on How Seriously Should We Take Elon Musk’s ‘America Party’?

One Way Or Another, Corporate America Always Wins

July 6, 2025July 8, 2025

If it seems to you like corporate America — and here I mean big corporate

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5 Comments on One Way Or Another, Corporate America Always Wins

Unpaused

July 6, 2025July 7, 2025

The macro calendar’s basically empty in the US this week. The Fed will release minutes

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7 Comments on Unpaused

The Dollar’s Relationship To US Stocks Is Changing

July 5, 2025July 7, 2025

If you’re immersed in the market zeitgeist, you’ve probably heard all you care to by

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Letters And Deadlines

July 4, 2025July 7, 2025

“We’re going to start sending letters out to various countries tomorrow.” So said Donald Trump

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8 Comments on Letters And Deadlines

Persona Non Grata

July 4, 2025July 6, 2025

Now we’ll never know where the bomb fuel is. 22 years on from Mohamed ElBaradei’s

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6 Comments on Persona Non Grata

So… What’s The Bear Case Now?

July 3, 2025July 6, 2025

Wall Street headed into Friday’s US holiday on track for another solid weekly gain. And

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8 Comments on So… What’s The Bear Case Now?

‘Solid’ US Jobs Report Is Optical Illusion

July 3, 2025July 5, 2025

The US economy added more jobs than expected last month, and you can thank state

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11 Comments on ‘Solid’ US Jobs Report Is Optical Illusion

Decent PMI Headlines Belie Underlying Stagflation

July 3, 2025July 4, 2025

The last of this week’s top-tier US macro releases sent mixed messages about the largest

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Hustle

July 2, 2025July 2, 2025

2025 Georgia in the summer. What can you say about it? It’s hot. The whole

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11 Comments on Hustle

Dollar Debate Rages As Trump Upends The World

July 2, 2025July 4, 2025

I suppose this goes without saying, but there’s still a lot of angst out there

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6 Comments on Dollar Debate Rages As Trump Upends The World

Private Hiring Slams Into Reverse As ADP Headline Goes Negative

July 2, 2025July 3, 2025

Private sector employers in the US — that’d be the businesses on whose shoulders job

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11 Comments on Private Hiring Slams Into Reverse As ADP Headline Goes Negative

2025 Is Worst Year For Job Cuts Since Pandemic

July 2, 2025July 3, 2025

There was good news and bad news from Wednesday’s monthly update on job cut announcements

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Lowest Mortgage Rates Since ‘Liberation Day’ Can’t Break Housing Gridlock

July 2, 2025July 3, 2025

Quick, refi! Mortgage rates in the US slipped below 6.80% on the MBA’s gauge in

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1 Comment on Lowest Mortgage Rates Since ‘Liberation Day’ Can’t Break Housing Gridlock

Trump Tax Bill Hands Richest 0.1% A $120,000 Annual Raise

July 1, 2025July 2, 2025

You gotta hand it to Republicans: Four decades on from the Reagan Revolution, they’ve distilled

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26 Comments on Trump Tax Bill Hands Richest 0.126 A $120,000 Annual Raise

Foreigners Are Still Saying ‘No Thank You’ To US Stocks, Bonds

July 1, 2025

In “US Equity Flows: Robust Or Sputtering?” I recapped H1 equity fund flows on the

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1 Comment on Foreigners Are Still Saying ‘No Thank You’ To US Stocks, Bonds

Blame Game

July 1, 2025July 2, 2025

Jerome Powell on Tuesday blamed Donald Trump for the Fed’s reluctance to cut rates in

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3 Comments on Blame Game

Restaurant, Hotel Job Openings Soar Second-Most Ever

July 1, 2025July 2, 2025

Don’t look now, but job openings across the US economy just jumped the most since

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8 Comments on Restaurant, Hotel Job Openings Soar Second-Most Ever

Another Month, Another Discouraging Read On American Manufacturing

July 1, 2025July 2, 2025

US manufacturing activity contracted again last month amid subdued hiring and pervasive upward pressure on

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2 Comments on Another Month, Another Discouraging Read On American Manufacturing

A Quarter To Remember

June 30, 2025

Here’s hoping you bought the dip. US equities on Monday closed out Q2 with a

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4 Comments on A Quarter To Remember

By Now, Trump’s Probably Right About Rates

June 30, 2025July 1, 2025

In my macro preview for this week, I suggested Jerome Powell might be facing a

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5 Comments on By Now, Trump’s Probably Right About Rates

Scott’s Dilemma

June 30, 2025July 1, 2025

“Well, wha– why would we do that?” Scott Bessent wondered on Monday, when Donald Trump’s

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2 Comments on Scott’s Dilemma

DJT Doesn’t Like DSTs

June 30, 2025July 1, 2025

Late last week, Donald Trump did his best to spoil the party on Wall Street

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3 Comments on DJT Doesn’t Like DSTs

BIS Not On The Trump Train

June 29, 2025July 1, 2025

“Blah, blah, blah.” That’s what Donald Trump heard when he read the latest annual report

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No Kings Week

June 29, 2025June 30, 2025

It’s another holiday week in the US, where Americans will celebrate that fateful day when

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4 Comments on No Kings Week

US Equity Flows: Robust Or Sputtering?

June 28, 2025June 30, 2025

Six months in, 2025’s been — how should I put this? — interesting, to employ

Read More

4 Comments on US Equity Flows: Robust Or Sputtering?

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • derek on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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