And the hits just keep on comin.’
Jobless claims in the US jumped to 237,000 in the week to August 30, Thursday’s update showed.
That’s not “high” in any absolute sense, but it’s the highest since June and coming as it did on the heels of an underwhelming ADP print and a JOLTS release that disappointed on some metrics, the labor market’s starting to feel like death by a thousand cuts. Thankfully, the BLS is operating under a “good news only” mandate now.
As the figure below reminds you, claims plummeted over the summer to just 217,000. So, we’re now 20,000 above that local low.
The four-week average is 231,000, the highest since July 5.
Continuing claims for the week to August 23 (ongoing filers are reported on a delay) were 1.94 million, below estimates. That series has declined for two straight weeks. Still, it remains a source of consternation, sitting as it does near levels last observed in November of 2021.
Meanwhile, Challenger job cut announcements were 85,979 in August, Thursday’s update showed. That was a 13% YoY increase and a 40% jump from July.
As the figure shows, layoffs are up two months in a row. Last month’s announced cuts were the most for any August since 2020. Excluding the pandemic, 85,979 was the most for any August since the financial crisis.
In the color accompanying the release, Andrew Challenger noted that YTD announced job cuts are approaching 900,000, up by two-thirds versus the same eight-month period in 2024.
“After the impact of DOGE on the Federal Government, employers are citing economic and market factors as the driver of layoffs,” he added.
Oh, and last month was the weakest August on record for announced hiring plans.
Before I was forced to trade for a living, I was a well-paid freelancer in Manhattan. The phone stopped ringing two years ago. Freelancers have been in trouble for a long time. And as usual, we see trouble and adapt far sooner than salary men and women. We also don’t have enormous monthly nuts to cover like salary people.