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Featured

‘Let The Oil Flow!’ Again!

September 22, 2026September 22, 2026
  • There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

    September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Behold: The Fastest Bear Market Recovery Ever

June 27, 2025June 30, 2025

Fast and furious. That’s Donald Trump in his second term. Whether you attribute the breakneck

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3 Comments on Behold: The Fastest Bear Market Recovery Ever

Bubble Watch

June 27, 2025June 29, 2025

We’re on the cusp of a new bubble. Maybe. With US equities back at records,

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3 Comments on Bubble Watch

Goldilocks Doesn’t Live Here

June 27, 2025June 29, 2025

This week’s marquee US macro release missed on pretty much every account. On Friday, the

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4 Comments on Goldilocks Doesn’t Live Here

A ‘Pennsylvania Plan’ To Cope With America’s ‘Explosive Debt’

June 26, 2025July 1, 2025

There’s still nothing like a consensus on whether Donald Trump, through word and deed, is

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8 Comments on A ‘Pennsylvania Plan’ To Cope With America’s ‘Explosive Debt’

Trump’s ‘Revenge Tax’ Is Dead

June 26, 2025June 27, 2025

One of Donald Trump’s worst-ever ideas (and that’s really saying something) is dead. On Thursday

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3 Comments on Trump’s ‘Revenge Tax’ Is Dead

Bomb-Ast

June 26, 2025June 27, 2025

“The Islamic Republic emerged victorious,” Ali Khamenei declared, in a video message filmed from an

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6 Comments on Bomb-Ast

Contract Signings Limp Higher In Beset US Housing

June 26, 2025June 26, 2025

“Good news” is probably too strong, but under the onerous circumstances, it’s fair to describe

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Brake Slam

June 26, 2025June 27, 2025

Guess what? The spending impulse in America was negligible during the first three months of

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1 Comment on Brake Slam

Miki Delivers

June 25, 2025

Miki Bowman’s paying off for Wall Street already. Just weeks after assuming a role which

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2 Comments on Miki Delivers

The World’s Always Ending. Stocks Rarely Care.

June 25, 2025June 26, 2025

Market participants on Wednesday expressed varying degrees of incredulity at the resilience on display in

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21 Comments on The World’s Always Ending. Stocks Rarely Care.

New US Home Sales Plunge, Inventory Piles Skyward

June 25, 2025June 26, 2025

New home sales ran at a slower-than-expected pace in the US last month, disappointing government

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3 Comments on New US Home Sales Plunge, Inventory Piles Skyward

Volatility-Targeting Models Poised For Biggest-Ever Stock-Buying Spree

June 25, 2025June 26, 2025

Earlier this week, in “Behind The Scenes Of Wall Street’s V-Shaped Recovery,” I spent some

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3 Comments on Volatility-Targeting Models Poised For Biggest-Ever Stock-Buying Spree

‘A Good Friend. I Trust Him.’

June 25, 2025June 26, 2025

“Donald, you will achieve something NO American president in decades could get done,” Mark Rutte

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6 Comments on ‘A Good Friend. I Trust Him.’

Could The Fed Surprise With A July ‘Insurance’ Cut?

June 24, 2025

As discussed here on Tuesday morning, I think the odds of a Fed cut at

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2 Comments on Could The Fed Surprise With A July ‘Insurance’ Cut?

Behind The Scenes Of Wall Street’s V-Shaped Recovery

June 24, 2025June 25, 2025

Higher now, lower later. That’s been the equities refrain from Nomura’s Charlie McElligott for the

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14 Comments on Behind The Scenes Of Wall Street’s V-Shaped Recovery

Powell Endures Congressional ‘Work Over’

June 24, 2025June 25, 2025

At 1:32 AM on Tuesday, while — I don’t know — finding his way to

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4 Comments on Powell Endures Congressional ‘Work Over’

Trump Loses It: Israel, Iran ‘Don’t Know What The F-ck They’re Doing’

June 24, 2025June 25, 2025

Furious. That was Donald Trump early Tuesday. He wasn’t mad at Iran. Well, he was,

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21 Comments on Trump Loses It: Israel, Iran ‘Don’t Know What The F-ck They’re Doing’

US Consumer Confidence Back To Melting

June 24, 2025June 25, 2025

It didn’t last. The surge in US consumer confidence triggered by the perception of a

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Peace Through Crazy

June 23, 2025June 24, 2025

Hand him that Nobel he’s always wanted. Late Monday in the US (early Tuesday in

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9 Comments on Peace Through Crazy

Risky Business

June 23, 2025

Donald Trump’s a risky proposition. Just in general, but particularly as President of the United

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Fireworks In Qatar

June 23, 2025June 24, 2025

Iran wasted some missiles it couldn’t spare on Monday taking pointless pot shots at the

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8 Comments on Fireworks In Qatar

In US Housing, Total Gridlock

June 23, 2025June 24, 2025

Existing home sales managed a minuscule uptick in the US last month, data released on

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11 Comments on In US Housing, Total Gridlock

Tariff Inflation Evident In Otherwise Decent US PMIs

June 23, 2025June 24, 2025

Demand’s holding up, but price pressures are evident. That was the overarching message from preliminary

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2 Comments on Tariff Inflation Evident In Otherwise Decent US PMIs

The Gambler

June 23, 2025June 23, 2025

Iran on Monday branded Donald Trump a “gambler” for weekend strikes on the country’s nuclear

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25 Comments on The Gambler

What Happens Next…

June 22, 2025June 23, 2025

It’s not about regime change. That was Pete Hegseth’s message to Iran on Sunday morning,

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11 Comments on What Happens Next…

Meanwhile, Back At The Ranch…

June 22, 2025June 23, 2025

The marquee event in the days ahead is the onset of World War III, tentatively

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This Is The End, Beautiful Friend

June 21, 2025June 23, 2025

As it turns out, two weeks meant two days. Just 48 hours — give or

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31 Comments on This Is The End, Beautiful Friend

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • Mr. Dog on ‘Let The Oil Flow!’ Again!
  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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