The good news is, consumer confidence in the US came in ahead of estimates in data released Tuesday.

The bad news is, the Conference Board’s gauge slipped from the prior month and remains well below where it stood in the immediate aftermath of the election, to say nothing of the shortfall versus pre-pandemic levels.

If you’re keeping score at home, 97.4 counted as a narrow beat to the 96.5 consensus. Last month’s headline was revised slightly higher.

As the figure shows, the headline’s about 14% lower versus November’s post-election print.

On the whole (i.e., setting aside the partisan divide), Americans aren’t enamored with what they’ve seen from Trump. Or at least not on economic policy. Long story short: The tariffs aren’t popular. Really they aren’t. They’re a tax and people hate taxes. I’m not sure there’s any way around that bottom-line assessment.

The details of Tuesday’s Conference Board release painted a somewhat convoluted picture. Households were more pessimistic about current conditions in the jobs market again, which is to say the labor differential deteriorated an eighth month. But consumers expressed guarded optimism about the business environment, both current and forward-looking.

At 74.8, the expectations gauge continued to loiter below the 80 threshold which, when breached to the downside, historically presaged recessions. But that indicator hasn’t been terribly useful in the post-2022 “vibecession.” Said differently: Ask anyone and they’ll tell you the US is in a recession, but actions speak louder than words and Americans are still spending, albeit at a slower pace.

Commenting on the release, Conference Board senior economist Stephanie Guichard noted that write-in responses this month continued to evidence concerns about tariffs and specifically the read-across for prices. “References to inflation,” she said, “rose again.”

I’m reminded, as ever, of what Trump said just a few hours after his second inaugural in January: “I always say ‘tariff’ is the most beautiful word in the dictionary.” Suffice to say consumers remain unconvinced.