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Classic Boiling Frog
Unless Howard Lutnick intervenes to say otherwise, the BEA will probably tell Americans what they al
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This is a stupid thing to say but if I were Powell I’d go to Trump’s office unannounced and throw the keys to the Fed on his desk and give a major press conference saying what he’s done and what will happen on Trump’s watch now that he’s in charge. The four little piggies Trump has on the payroll, coupled with his “gut,” will destroy our economy and retirements will disappear before the eyes of the MAGA faithful. The GOP needs to be destroyed before there is no more USA.
Part of me was hoping Powell would use his final JH speech to do that.
Same. What an epic story that would have been for all of this week.
There is also the matter of the largest co. by market cap reporting this week. Maybe a needed distraction from the weekly volcano eruption of BS emanating from DC.
Tariffs are very bad. My only hope is that whomever follows Trump is intelligent and understands that the world needs to get to global free trade, as much as possible and as quickly as possible.
This is a fantastic line: “Let’s go rob a coin laundry” is a tougher sell on a bored Saturday night than “Let’s go get some ice cream”…
It reminded me of a book I recently read that I couldn’t put down. The Art Thief, by Michael Finkel. A fantastic and true story of a psychopathic narcissist.
The somewhat positive thing about these tariffs is that the US is the only one putting them up. And that they are being put up after 70 years of specialization.
So my guess is no business will meaningfully adjust but just keep doing what they are doing and tough it out. Prices for foreign goods will go up, and local goods producers will probably increase their prices once as well, to maintain similar volumes as pre-tariffs but just grab some extra margin. It would take a fool to move production meaningfully in this environment. Corporates will at least wait for the elections next year.
So my guess is prices go up once more, it will destroy a bit or a meaningful bit of demand, and then I’m curious to see if anything or anyone breaks somewhere.
Raising rates is probably not what you want to do in that situation, unless the US consumer is more resilient than we might think. But expect it’s a plain old sales tax-ish scenario that will destroy some demand.
We got lucky that not all the other countries in the world are doing the same. If that were to happen, I would worry. A lot.
Not to worry, global trade is being directed by a guy who wears a hat proclaiming in the third person that he was right about everything. What other world leader even wears a hat for crying out loud. I’m not great on the constitution, but I’m pretty sure hats like that are forbidden anywhere in the White House. Decades and decades ago I worked at a private psychiatric hospital. Walking in to start the second shift on a non-locked ward, you’d expect to see a hat like that on someone’s head.
Pauli, they took my thumbs!