I suppose we all owe ADP an apology.

For most of the post-pandemic era, macro watchers (myself included) looked askance at the release, which was regularly derided as a “poor predictor” of the BLS’s monthly jobs report. At best, ADP was a superfluous amuse-bouche. At worst, a deceptive hors d’oeuvre that too often gave a false impression of the main course.

In 2025, though, ADP’s enjoying a renaissance. Redemption’s close at hand. Between staff shortages, poor response rates and, now, the very real threat of politicization, the BLS jobs report — also known as the most important macroeconomic data series on the planet — is hurtling headlong into a credibility crisis. That leaves ADP as, potentially, the go-to reference for traders looking to gauge the hiring impulse across the world’s largest economy.

To be sure, we’re not there yet. But the sheer scope — and, more importantly if you’re a politician, the directionality — of recent revisions to headline hiring as tallied by the BLS, as well as the Trump administration’s staff shakeups and ominous allusions to “improving” the data such that it’s more friendly to the party line, cast doubt on the veracity of the figures.

It doesn’t help that E.J. Antoni, the Heritage Foundation economist Trump picked to replace Erika McEntarfer, floated suspending the monthly jobs report while chatting with Fox last month.

With all of that in mind, have a look at the figure below, which gives you some context for the size and direction of revisions to private hiring as reported by the BLS.

“Every private-NFP print has been revised downward thus far in 2025, and by a total of -372,000,” BMO’s Ian Lyngen remarked, in his Weekly. “Over a broader timeline, the initial private-NFP figure has been revised down in 78% of the months since the beginning of 2023, and by an average of -76,000.”

Small wonder doubts are creeping in regarding the reliability of the government’s methods. Or at least regarding the output of those methods.

If you’re wondering how well the revised private NFP tally lines up with ADP private hiring, the answer’s “pretty well.” Have a look:

As Lyngen remarked in the same note, the three-month moving average for private NFP hiring through July before revisions was nearly 100,000. After revisions, that figure was just 40,000 which, as it happens, is almost precisely in line with the May-July average for the ADP headline.

Given that, and in consideration of what, if we’re honest, is very likely to be political pressure on the BLS to find a way to keep headline NFP hiring from falling “too much,” it’s completely rational to suspect ADP will become more tradable (and thereby a bigger event risk) going forward.

“We suspect investors will respond to ADP with greater conviction at least for a few months until there is further clarity, and markets see the next several months of BLS revisions,” Lyngen went on, adding that, “From the perspective of BLS credibility, revisions will ideally decrease in magnitude during the balance of the year and restore the market’s confidence in trading based on the official employment report.”

Now, who’s ready for the annual QCEW benchmarking exercise?! It’ll be released at 10:00 AM on Tuesday.