Good luck, Kevin. You’re gonna need it.

That’s a concise summary of the April FOMC minutes, released into the pre-Nvidia report void on Wednesday afternoon in the US.

The key passage from the account of last month’s policy gathering, Jerome Powell’s last as Fed chair, said “almost all” meeting participants flagged a risk that the war, even if it ends expeditiously, could cause “the prices of oil and other commodities [to] remain elevated for longer than expected.”

If that turns out to be the case, more or less everyone on the Committee expects “continued upward pressure on inflation” stemming from the lingering effects of the supply shock including and especially “the pass-through of higher input costs to other prices.”

Recall that a trio of dissenters at the April FOMC meeting argued for a change to the forward guidance, which they said should clearly reflect the possibility that the next move in rates could be a hike.

To recycle some of my own color, that was the first time the Fed acknowledged that the statement language around the outlook implicitly reflected an easing bias. Wednesday’s minutes said several more participants (i.e., in addition to the three voters) favored dropping that wording.

“Many participants indicated they would have preferred removing the language from the post-meeting statement that suggested an easing bias regarding the likely direction of the Committee’s future interest rate decisions,” the minutes said, adding that “the vast majority” of policymakers said the war increased the risk that inflation will take longer to recede to the Fed’s target. “Vast majority.”

Although meeting participants still “judged [that] risks to the employment side of the Committee’s dual mandate were tilted to the downside,” more or less everyone agreed that labor market conditions were “stable” and likely to stay that way.

In addition, “most” policymakers mentioned the fillip to growth from AI investment, said “consumer spending had been resilient” and believe real GDP growth’s likely to “remain solid” for the rest of the year.

I could go on, but I think you get the point: This isn’t a Fed inclined to cut rates. Not at all. That doesn’t mean it’s a Committee which wants to raise them either, but there’s no hope — none — for Kevin Warsh when it comes to marshaling support for a cut at his first meeting as chair next month.

That being the case, Warsh can look forward to the first of what’ll almost surely be regular derision from the presidential social media feed beginning promptly on the afternoon of June 17.