A couple of hours after four GOP senators broke ranks to help Democrats advance a resolution that’d compel The White House to end the war with Iran, Donald Trump regaled Congress members and their families at the annual congressional picnic.

“We’re going to end [the] war very quickly,” he said, insisting that the IRGC “want[s] to make a deal so badly.” “It’s gonna happen and it’s gonna happen fast,” he carried on.

The market thinks that too. Or at least the equity market does. Bonds don’t seem so sure to the extent the highest long-end rates since 2007 partially reflect a worsening outlook for inflation in addition to unfortunate fiscal fundamentals across the developed world.

Stocks moved on from the war and the disruption in the Strait weeks ago, although as one popular strategist noted, the macro can once again become a catalyst now that the “micro calm of positive earnings” is behind us.

The figure above’s a reminder: Correlation exhibits a seasonal, falling during earnings and rising thereafter. “The shift back to macro over micro matters,” Nomura’s Charlie McElligott said. “Realized correlation seasonality [is] an upside vol catalyst as we emerge from reporting season.”

So, we’re moving into a period where the macro plays a bigger role in driving the price action (versus the company-specific dynamics associated with earnings) and just as the physical blowback from the Strait closure’s expected to come home.

The energy and petrochemical supply shock still isn’t solved, McElligott remarked, in the same note, adding that the supply shock’s “draining emergency inventories, which will soon begin running dry, keeping the inflation tail alive.”

And yet, like Trump, fund managers reckon this’ll all be over “very quickly.” In the May installment of BofA’s Global Fund Manager Survey, released this week, the vast majority of panelists said the Strait will be reopened over the next four months, and more than half said it’ll be open this month or in June (figure on the left, below).

As the figure on the right shows, a mere 7% said Brent would end 2026 north of $100.

That 7% share was up from April, but still suggests professional capital allocators aren’t convinced Trump has the stomach for high gas prices into and through the mid-terms.

In the same remarks to the bipartisan congressional picnic, Trump repeated his optimistic timeline. “I think we’re going to be finished very quickly and hopefully, we’re going to get it done in a very nice manner,” he said. “You’re going to see oil prices plummet.”