‘We’re Bringing Back Factory Jobs’!

Hiring.

Tuesday’s update on America’s marquee gauge of manufacturing activity was all about hiring.

Specifically: A lack thereof.

The first of this week’s top-tier US macro releases found ISM’s gauge of factory employment printing 43.8 for August, up a smidge from the prior month’s readout, but abysmal all the same.

As the figure shows, this particular gauge of the factory hiring impulse has spent the last seven months in contraction, 14 of the last 15 and 24 of the last 27.

That, under the watch of successive US presidents promising to bring back American factory jobs, either from overseas or just in general through a confused mix of economic nationalism, protectionism and industrial policy. In three words: It ain’t workin’.

“For every comment on hiring, there were four on reducing head count as companies continued to focus on accelerating staff reductions due to uncertain near- to mid-term demand,” Susan Spence (who succeeded the long-serving Tim Fiore earlier this year as survey chair) remarked, in the color accompanying Tuesday’s update.

The headline ISM print was 48.7 for August, up from July but a touch below consensus.

The figure above is similar to the first chart, only it uses the ISM headline instead of the employment gauge. August marked the 31st month in contraction out of 34.

There was at least one silver lining: New orders perked up. That index (which is key) rose to 51.4, the best reading in seven months.

Also, the prevalence of upward price pressures abated marginally. The price index slipped to 63.7 from 64.8. Obviously, that gauge is still far too high. Suffice to say new orders at 51.4 and prices at 63.7 is stagflationary, particularly considering another lackluster showing for the employment measure.

As Spence put it, the factory sector continues to manage head count through “layoffs and not filling open positions.”


 

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3 thoughts on “‘We’re Bringing Back Factory Jobs’!

  1. Only the most optimistic companies in the world would want to expand their labor force with all the political uncertainty. Now, there is always some uncertainty, but politics has brought tariffs back and no one knows anything about how it might be next year or even next month. Hunker down would be my reaction if I were still young and in business.

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