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Featured

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • ‘The Plain Fact’

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Don’t Hate The Players, Just The Game

July 28, 2025

Don’t hate the player, hate the game. Like most pithy maxims, that old adage prescribes

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5 Comments on Don’t Hate The Players, Just The Game

‘Disappointed’

July 28, 2025July 29, 2025

Donald Trump’s “disappointed” in Vladimir Putin. That’s his word. Trump’s. And I’m sure Putin’s heartbroken.

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7 Comments on ‘Disappointed’

Fundamentally Speaking…

July 28, 2025July 29, 2025

I’m going to dwell, for another beat, on the fundamentals. How quaint, right? First thing

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1 Comment on Fundamentally Speaking…

Gosh, It’s Good To Be A Corporate

July 28, 2025July 29, 2025

At the risk of jinxing things (there’s no such risk; superstition’s for the mentally desperate)

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8 Comments on Gosh, It’s Good To Be A Corporate

The Busiest Week Of The Year

July 27, 2025July 29, 2025

To say the US macro-market docket will be “busy” in the days ahead would be

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1 Comment on The Busiest Week Of The Year

‘It’s The Biggest Trade Deal Ever’

July 27, 2025July 28, 2025

“It was the best we could get.” So said Ursula von der Leyen on Sunday,

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3 Comments on ‘It’s The Biggest Trade Deal Ever’

Dissent(s) Ahoy!

July 27, 2025July 28, 2025

It’s tempting to say there’s no chance of a Fed cut at what, whether anyone

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5 Comments on Dissent(s) Ahoy!

That’s It, I’m Moving To Switzerland

July 26, 2025August 23, 2025

[Editor’s note: I’m making the Weekly available to all readers this week, as I think

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31 Comments on That’s It, I’m Moving To Switzerland

From Melt-Up To Bubble Watch

July 25, 2025July 27, 2025

It’s fair to say the melt-up materialized. That’d be the equity melt-up I spent the

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15 Comments on From Melt-Up To Bubble Watch

I’m Doing Great, How Are You?

July 25, 2025July 27, 2025

I’m doing great, how are you? One of the great tragedies of Donald Trump’s populism

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8 Comments on I’m Doing Great, How Are You?

Free Rein

July 25, 2025July 27, 2025

I’m pretty tired by now of hearing about what Donald Trump “can” and “can’t” do.

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28 Comments on Free Rein

Caution: Men Working

July 24, 2025July 26, 2025

I promised myself I wasn’t going to write about Donald Trump’s publicity stunt at the

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11 Comments on Caution: Men Working

Before The Fall, A Blow-Off Top?

July 24, 2025July 25, 2025

Are US equities approaching a “blow-off” top ahead of the traditional late-summer vol expansion and

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7 Comments on Before The Fall, A Blow-Off Top?

America’s New Home Inventory Bloat Reaches Epic Proportions

July 24, 2025July 25, 2025

The pace of new home sales in the US barely rose in June leaving the

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2 Comments on America’s New Home Inventory Bloat Reaches Epic Proportions

About Those ‘Urgent’ Rate Cuts…

July 24, 2025July 25, 2025

There wasn’t much Thursday in the way of evidence to support a US slowdown narrative.

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Leave a Comment on About Those ‘Urgent’ Rate Cuts…

‘This Guy’s Gotta Go’

July 24, 2025July 24, 2025

“This is literally the government of Japan giving Donald Trump and the America people $550

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6 Comments on ‘This Guy’s Gotta Go’

What Even Is Tesla These Days?

July 23, 2025July 24, 2025

Remember Tesla? That’s the car company Elon Musk runs when he’s not… well, when he’s

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6 Comments on What Even Is Tesla These Days?

Alphabet’s Spending Plan In Focus After Very Solid Quarter

July 23, 2025July 24, 2025

Alphabet kicked off Magnificent 7 results with what looked like a solid beat. The company

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1 Comment on Alphabet’s Spending Plan In Focus After Very Solid Quarter

The Fed’s Probably Lost To Us

July 23, 2025July 24, 2025

House Speaker Mike Johnson’s “disenchanted” with Jerome Powell. That’s Johnson’s word. “Disenchanted.” He used it

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7 Comments on The Fed’s Probably Lost To Us

Existing Home Prices Soar To New Record. Sales Torpedoed

July 23, 2025July 23, 2025

Surprise! Existing home sales in the US fell far more than expected last month, according

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5 Comments on Existing Home Prices Soar To New Record. Sales Torpedoed

A Concept Of A Deal

July 23, 2025July 24, 2025

Japan will invest $550 billion — equivalent, roughly, to a bazillion, gagillion yen — in

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16 Comments on A Concept Of A Deal

What A Weak Dollar Means For Corporate Bottom Lines

July 22, 2025July 22, 2025

These are the sessions — hot summer sessions when everybody who’s anybody is on vacation

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Leave a Comment on What A Weak Dollar Means For Corporate Bottom Lines

Should The Fed Just Give Up? After All, Everyone Else Has

July 22, 2025July 23, 2025

More or less everyone’s lost their minds in America. I get that. And most people

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19 Comments on Should The Fed Just Give Up? After All, Everyone Else Has

The Fundamentals Are Sound

July 22, 2025July 23, 2025

The fundamentals are sound. Said everyone in the days and weeks before every market crash

Read More

1 Comment on The Fundamentals Are Sound

Resilient And Serene

July 22, 2025July 23, 2025

“Economic vitals are proving resilient” and markets are “oddly serene.” That sentence is spliced together

Read More

4 Comments on Resilient And Serene

What’s The Bet?

July 21, 2025July 21, 2025

It’ll all work out ok in the end. That’s how US equities — which powered

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1 Comment on What’s The Bet?

Stocks’ Advice On Tariff Man: Just Ignore Him

July 21, 2025July 23, 2025

Equity investors, for better or worse, have stopped listening to Donald Trump’s tariff threats. The

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1 Comment on Stocks’ Advice On Tariff Man: Just Ignore Him

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • derek on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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