Revised data can be trusted as long as it’s favorable, right?

Asking for market participants, some of whom are having a difficult time in 2025 discerning when revisions to official US government data constitute a “deep state” conspiracy and when revisions are just an innocuous statistical exercise aimed at producing a more accurate tally of key macro aggregates.

According to the third estimate of Q2 US GDP released on Thursday by the BEA, growth ran at a 3.8% pace during the period. That was markedly better than the second estimate to say nothing of the advance read.

To make the obvious joke: It’s too bad there isn’t a fourth estimate. We might be able to get this sucker north of 4% if we refresh the spreadsheets one more time.

The personal consumption component was revised to show a 2.5% spending pace. Although still well below the average observed in 2023 and 2024, that print was a demonstrable improvement from both the advance and second estimates (1.4% and 1.6%, respectively).

Perhaps the most notable upward bump was to the key “real final sales to private domestic purchasers” line.

As the figure shows, that readout now reflects an increase of 2.9%, up a full percentage point from the second estimate, which was itself revised 0.7ppt higher from the first. That suggests underlying demand’s robust.

On the inflation front, the quarterly core PCE print in the third GDP estimate was 2.6% QoQ. That was a touch higher than the 2.5% economists expected, but the coolest since Q3 2024 all the same.

This release came with revisions dating back to Q1 2020. If you put the revised and unrevised headline GDP prints side-by-side looking back to Q1 2021 (i.e., forgetting the pandemic-distorted 2020), none of the ups and downs appear to merit further inspection, notwithstanding a few sizable “alterations.”

All in all, the third and final estimate of Q2 GDP for the US suggested the world’s largest economy was on far stronger footing last quarter than initially reported.

Stephen Miran, speaking to Bloomberg TV on Thursday morning, tried to square the circle between the large rate cuts he insists are necessary and an economy that’s apparently expanding quite briskly. “I don’t think the economy is about to crater,” he said. “I would rather act proactively than wait for some giant catastrophe to occur.”

He didn’t elaborate on what sort of “giant catastrophe” might be lurking around the corner.