The OECD on Tuesday raised nearly all its forecasts for the global economy to reflect a more resilient growth backdrop in the face of an epochal shift in US trade policy.

The organization — whose official tagline “Better policies for better lives” contrasts sharply with the Trump administration’s unofficial motto “Deranged jingoism for a miserable world” — said the global economy will expand 3.2% this year, three-tenths better than the 2.9% it forecast in June.

These updates are like most such reports issued by multilateral organizations in that exactly no one reads them cover to cover, probably not even the people who write them. They have exactly no bearing on markets, are summarily dismissed by traders and rarely garner above-the-fold coverage in the financial media.

Why mention it then? I don’t have a good answer. I’ll just quote Ben Bernanke who, when asked by Ron Paul why central banks hold gold in their reserves instead of diamonds, said simply, “It’s tradition.”

The figure below, from the data accompanying the OECD report, gives you a sense of the front-loading effect which helped bolster growth during the first half of the year.

“Global growth proved more resilient than expected in the first half of 2025, especially in many emerging markets but also the United States [as] industrial production and trade were buoyed by front-loading ahead of higher tariffs,” the OECD said.

I’ll reiterate what scarcely needs repeating: Virtually nobody, anywhere, wants the tariffs. Not the political left, not the political right and certainly not the political center. Only the political extremes in America are interested in entertaining Donald Trump’s mercantilist fever dream.

Protectionism’s a defensive strategy that should be kept behind emergency glass and only deployed to defend specific industries during real emergencies. Trump’s employing it offensively, across industries on the basis of a factually inaccurate conceptualization of trade deficits. C’est la vie.

The figure above’s just another illustration of Trump’s decision to quintuple the average US tariff rate in pursuit of lost American greatness.

I’m in a “flat” mood today, so I’ll just state this matter-of-factly (not that anyone needs to hear it again): Trump isn’t so much “wrong” about trade deficits as he is uneducated about them and unwilling to correct that situation. If I call a tree a turtle I’m surely wrong, but “wrong” isn’t the best word in that scenario.

The biggest major country bumps to the OECD growth outlook on Tuesday were 0.4ppt upward revisions for India and Japan. Only Germany saw its forecast lowered. Projections for France and Italy were unchanged. The forecast for US growth was raised to 1.8% from 1.6%. Most of the 2026 projections were unrevised.

“While the full impact of tariff increases is still unfolding, early signs of effects are visible in consumer behavior, labor markets and prices,” the OECD went on, lamenting slower hiring and fewer job openings “in some economies” and stalling disinflation amid higher food prices and stubborn services inflation.

“Looking ahead, downside risks loom large,” the report warned. “Further tariff hikes, increased concerns about fiscal risks [and] renewed inflation pressures could weigh on growth [while] financial market repricing, including of volatile crypto-assets, could pose additional financial stability concerns.”

They did offer one silver lining: “Faster advances in AI could support stronger outcomes.” Skynet will save us.