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Featured

Weekly: Melodrama

November 7, 2026November 7, 2026
  • ‘Dem Fatale’ Crashes The AI Party

    November 6, 2026November 6, 2026
  • Inflation Fatalism Has Set In

    November 6, 2026
  • Drunken Monkey Darts

    November 6, 2026November 6, 2026

Markets

On Wall Street: Crash And F’in’ Burn

November 5, 2026November 7, 2026
  • Did Democrats Just Kill ‘New 60/40’?

    November 5, 2026November 6, 2026
  • Um, Excuse Me, But Your Chips Are Bleeding

    November 5, 2026November 6, 2026
  • Deus Ex Machina?

    November 4, 2026November 5, 2026
  • The Capex Catch-22

    November 3, 2026November 4, 2026

economy

‘Tis The Season! For Temporary Fulfillment Jobs

November 5, 2026November 6, 2026
  • Senseless Iran War Triggers BoE Hike, 5% Inflation Warning

    November 5, 2026November 5, 2026
  • Irrepressible

    November 4, 2026November 5, 2026
  • In Other News: Scorching ‘Job Changer’ Pay Gains, AI Disruption

    November 4, 2026November 5, 2026
  • Someone’s Got Work For You

    November 3, 2026November 4, 2026

Geopolitics

Tsunami

November 4, 2026November 5, 2026

Let’s Talk Blue Waves

November 1, 2026November 2, 2026

Lagarde Versus Le Pen?

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026

Duly Noted

US Jobless Claims Chase History

November 5, 2026November 7, 2026

An ARM And A Leg

October 28, 2026October 30, 2026

Dinner Date: What’s At Stake As Trump, Xi Dine In Buenos Aires

December 1, 2018October 24, 2021

“We’ll probably end up with something good at some point.” 

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Someone Is Wrong: November Sees Dueling Flows In Growth, Value Products

December 1, 2018

Can they both be right?

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1 Comment on Someone Is Wrong: November Sees Dueling Flows In Growth, Value Products

Bush Death Complicates ‘Binary’ G20 Trade As Trump Cancels Presser, Closes Market On December 5

December 1, 2018December 1, 2018

“There’s a lot of Dec7th paper out there.”

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3 Comments on Bush Death Complicates ‘Binary’ G20 Trade As Trump Cancels Presser, Closes Market On December 5

‘Highly Classified’ CIA Assessment Reveals Saudi Crown Prince Sent 11 Messages To Hit Team On Day Of Khashoggi Murder

December 1, 2018October 24, 2021

This won’t go over well on Capitol Hill.

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5 Comments on ‘Highly Classified’ CIA Assessment Reveals Saudi Crown Prince Sent 11 Messages To Hit Team On Day Of Khashoggi Murder

Jerome Powell’s Job Is Done Here – It’s All Up To Trump Now

November 30, 2018December 1, 2018

Don’t screw this up, Mr. President…

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Results May Variable.

November 30, 2018

More fading of the persistent hikes narrative…

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Meanwhile, In Leveraged Loan Bubble Land…

November 30, 2018

This is fine…

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‘Greeks’ In Argentina, ‘Systematic’ Chaos And A Binary Nightmare In Buenos Aires

November 30, 2018

“It’s gonna be mental.”

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2 Comments on ‘Greeks’ In Argentina, ‘Systematic’ Chaos And A Binary Nightmare In Buenos Aires

Bob Lighthizer Would Be ‘Surprised’ If One Dinner With Xi Doesn’t Solve Highly Complex, Intractable Trade Dispute

November 30, 2018

“Our base case is that there will be no agreement.”

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3 Comments on Bob Lighthizer Would Be ‘Surprised’ If One Dinner With Xi Doesn’t Solve Highly Complex, Intractable Trade Dispute

Chocolate Cake Diplomacy Gets Biggest Test Yet As Trump-Xi Meeting Dominates Global News Cycle

November 30, 2018November 30, 2018

The fate of global trade and commerce is on the line.

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2 Comments on Chocolate Cake Diplomacy Gets Biggest Test Yet As Trump-Xi Meeting Dominates Global News Cycle

The Mystery Of The Diverging Dollar Shortage Metrics

November 29, 2018

A week ago, we suggested the dollar funding squeeze was about to get worse. And it did. Sort of…

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Today’s Episode Of ‘Our Colluding President’ Is Brought To You By Michael Cohen’s Plea Deal

November 29, 2018October 20, 2021

“Individual 1.”

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7 Comments on Today’s Episode Of ‘Our Colluding President’ Is Brought To You By Michael Cohen’s Plea Deal

Fed Minutes Tip Support For Modifying Hike Commitment, Presage Imminent IOER Tweak

November 29, 2018November 29, 2018

Just in case traders needed a bit more to ponder…

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‘The Crown Prince Is Out Of Control’: U.S. Senate At Wits’ End With Saudis, Yemen War

November 29, 2018November 29, 2018

“…we’ve watched innocent people be killed.”

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1 Comment on ‘The Crown Prince Is Out Of Control’: U.S. Senate At Wits’ End With Saudis, Yemen War

‘Buenos Aires, Not Vienna’: Oil Traders Brace As G20 Seen More Critical Than OPEC Gathering

November 29, 2018November 29, 2018

You don’t have to be a political scientist or an oil trader…

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oil1 Comment on ‘Buenos Aires, Not Vienna’: Oil Traders Brace As G20 Seen More Critical Than OPEC Gathering

‘I Expect Them Before Christmas’: Trump’s Auto Tariffs Now Appear Foregone Conclusion

November 29, 2018November 29, 2018

“The U.S.A. is booming!”

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1 Comment on ‘I Expect Them Before Christmas’: Trump’s Auto Tariffs Now Appear Foregone Conclusion

One Trader Delivers Bad News For Twitter’s Top Commodities Strategist

November 28, 2018November 28, 2018

“Well, unfortunately for the President, there is a relationship between energy prices and economic growth, and it is indeed negatively correlated, but the lag is long.”

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If You Already Sold It All, You Don’t Need To Hedge…

November 28, 2018November 28, 2018

Right up until Wednesday at lunchtime, there was a lot of fear out there.

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1 Comment on If You Already Sold It All, You Don’t Need To Hedge…

Synthetic Short Gamma, More CTA Levels And ‘The Moment Everything Broke’

November 28, 2018

“The local pain-trade remains Equities higher.”

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And So, Just After Lunch On November 28, The ‘Powell Put’ Was Born…

November 28, 2018October 20, 2021

I suppose the history books will read as follows…

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3 Comments on And So, Just After Lunch On November 28, The ‘Powell Put’ Was Born…

Dovish Jerome Powell Walks It Back And The Market Loves It

November 28, 2018November 28, 2018

Is this what you were looking for?

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3 Comments on Dovish Jerome Powell Walks It Back And The Market Loves It

Confusion Reigns As Goldman Swears Everybody Is Reading Fed Wrong

November 28, 2018

“…we appear to be morphing into that point of the cycle where you need an advanced degree in semiotics and textual analysis to ‘understand’ what the central bank is saying.”

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Mike Novogratz ‘Had A Fever’ – And The ‘Prescription’ Is Now Killing Him

November 28, 2018October 20, 2021

“Guess what?!”

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Feeling Good About The G20? One Bank Has An Idea On How To Trade It

November 28, 2018

“Enjoy!”

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2 Comments on Feeling Good About The G20? One Bank Has An Idea On How To Trade It

Let’s Count All The Ways Steve Mnuchin’s Secret Fed Policy Straw Poll With Bond Dealers Is Absurd

November 28, 2018November 28, 2018

“Ok you guys, show of hands”…

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3 Comments on Let’s Count All The Ways Steve Mnuchin’s Secret Fed Policy Straw Poll With Bond Dealers Is Absurd

Trump’s Infallible ‘Gut’ Is ‘Not Even A Little Bit Happy’ With ‘Jay’ Powell, Ok?!

November 27, 2018

“…the Fed is way off-base.”

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6 Comments on Trump’s Infallible ‘Gut’ Is ‘Not Even A Little Bit Happy’ With ‘Jay’ Powell, Ok?!

Rotten Apple: When One Company Becomes Synonymous With The Macro Story

November 27, 2018November 27, 2018

Sorry to employ a bad (and horribly obvious) cliché, but…

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16 Comments on Rotten Apple: When One Company Becomes Synonymous With The Macro Story

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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