As you can probably imagine given how great of an idea Brexit was in the first place and how smoothly things have gone in the course of trying to make it a reality, Wednesday was another calm day in the U.K. with no political drama to cloud the outlook.
I’m just kidding. Theresa May now faces a party no-confidence vote and the fate of Brexit hangs in the balance. But don’t worry, she says she’s going to “fight it with everything I’ve got”. She also warned that her ouster would mean Brexit gets postponed.
This doesn’t really come as a surprise. This rumor was already in the market and generally speaking, people think she’s going to survive. So far, she looks to have substantial support. Given that, the pound is at day highs.
Although obviously, it’s still down for the week.
(Bloomberg)
“It is now within our grasp,” May said Wednesday, desperately explaining how the U.K. is this close to making its worst nightmare a reality. “[We] spent weeks tearing ourselves apart [and this] will only create more division”, she added. Overnight vol. jumped.
(Bloomberg)
Even if she does survive, common sense suggests this just further erodes her authority and could undermine the chances of the Brexit deal being successfully crammed through Parliament. If she goes (which, again, seems unlikely), the current Brexit deal would likely be scrapped and, presumably, the chances of the U.K. crashing out of the EU with no deal would rise materially.
Meanwhile, Donald Tusk released a letter to EU leaders, cordially inviting them to come on over to tomorrow’s Summit in Brussels. “The intention is that we will listen to the U.K. Prime Minister’s assessment, and later, we will meet at 27 to discuss the matter and adopt relevant conclusions”, he said, before noting that “time is running out, [so] we will also discuss the state of preparations for a no-deal scenario.”
All in all, pretty standard stuff!
