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Featured

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • ‘The Plain Fact’

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

US Economy Revised To Show Stronger Performance

August 28, 2025August 29, 2025

Good job, Howard. The BEA, which one can only assume is every bit as beholden

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‘The Ultimate Dip-Buyer’

August 27, 2025August 27, 2025

I remind readers of this whenever the opportunity presents itself: The biggest source of demand

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Frenzy Wanes, But Nvidia Still ‘Extraordinary’

August 27, 2025August 28, 2025

Nvidia and its swollen market cap narrowly topped estimates in results released after the bell

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Told You So. Now It’s Too Late

August 27, 2025August 28, 2025

Now you get it. Now everyone gets it. If only it weren’t too late. Above-the-fold

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5 Comments on Told You So. Now It’s Too Late

No, Bill. It Wasn’t ‘Fine’

August 27, 2025August 28, 2025

Earlier this month, Bill Dudley penned an Op-Ed confidently declaring that the Fed will “be

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9 Comments on No, Bill. It Wasn’t ‘Fine’

Trump, Cook, SCOTUS And The Appeasement Paradox

August 26, 2025August 28, 2025

The problem with appeasement as a strategy for dealing with overbearing types is self-evident: They

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8 Comments on Trump, Cook, SCOTUS And The Appeasement Paradox

In US Housing, A ‘Decisive Shift’

August 26, 2025August 27, 2025

We’re witnessing “a decisive shift” in the US housing market. Specifically, it’s shifting decisively in

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2 Comments on In US Housing, A ‘Decisive Shift’

US Consumers Still Not Convinced ‘Tariff’ Is ‘Most Beautiful Word’

August 26, 2025August 27, 2025

The good news is, consumer confidence in the US came in ahead of estimates in

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1 Comment on US Consumers Still Not Convinced ‘Tariff’ Is ‘Most Beautiful Word’

Fire Juggler

August 26, 2025August 27, 2025

I’m quite sure he doesn’t care, or at least not yet, right now. And he’s

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Dear Governor Cook…

August 25, 2025August 26, 2025

Ok, everyone try not to laugh. Donald Trump has “a solemn duty to ensure that

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23 Comments on Dear Governor Cook…

The Deals Are Falling Through

August 25, 2025August 25, 2025

“We also agreed to increase the one-time membership fee from $—- to $—-,” read the

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1 Comment on The Deals Are Falling Through

Two And 20 In 2025

August 25, 2025August 26, 2025

What’d you get for your two and 20 this year so far? On average, hedge

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5 Comments on Two And 20 In 2025

New Construction Glut Weighs On Prices As US Housing Struggles Persist

August 25, 2025August 26, 2025

Sales of partially prefabricated wooden boxes adorned on at least one side with a handsome,

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8 Comments on New Construction Glut Weighs On Prices As US Housing Struggles Persist

Junk!

August 25, 2025August 26, 2025

Junk. Who wants some? Americans, that’s who. We love junk. Zebra Cakes washed down with

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7 Comments on Junk!

Corporate Inequality Revisited

August 24, 2025August 25, 2025

Rate cuts are coming soon to the allegedly over-budget construction site that is the Marriner

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2 Comments on Corporate Inequality Revisited

Classic Boiling Frog

August 24, 2025August 25, 2025

Unless Howard Lutnick intervenes to say otherwise, the BEA will probably tell Americans what they

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8 Comments on Classic Boiling Frog

The 800-Pound Gorilla

August 23, 2025August 25, 2025

Ignoring the 800-pound gorilla won’t make him disappear. To let the financial media and the

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5 Comments on The 800-Pound Gorilla

Powell Holds Firm, But Nods To September Rate Cut

August 22, 2025August 25, 2025

As expected, Jerome Powell opened the door to a rate cut at the September FOMC

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6 Comments on Powell Holds Firm, But Nods To September Rate Cut

Bury My FAIT At Jackson Hole

August 22, 2025August 24, 2025

The last time the Fed reviewed its policymaking framework, they adopted a strategy which explicitly

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5 Comments on Bury My FAIT At Jackson Hole

Famine

August 22, 2025August 24, 2025

“There are no longer natural famines in the world; there are only political famines. If

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9 Comments on Famine

FHFA As Trump’s Personal Prosecutor

August 21, 2025August 23, 2025

“[A]n ominous turn in political lawfare.” That’s how The Wall Street Journal described what’s going

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5 Comments on FHFA As Trump’s Personal Prosecutor

Resale Housing Market Celebrates ‘Ever-So-Slight’ Improvement

August 21, 2025August 22, 2025

Congratulations are in order. The perpetually beleaguered resale US housing market managed to show a

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US PMIs Suggest Fed Should Be Hiking, Not Cutting

August 21, 2025August 22, 2025

Well, good news and bad news from the preliminary read on services and manufacturing activity

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1 Comment on US PMIs Suggest Fed Should Be Hiking, Not Cutting

US Jobless Claims Jump To Multi-Week High

August 21, 2025August 22, 2025

For the recession spotters out there, US jobless claims rose the most since May in

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1 Comment on US Jobless Claims Jump To Multi-Week High

Fed Still Saw Inflation As Biggest Risk, Minutes Show

August 20, 2025August 21, 2025

When they’re not mismanaging asbestos removal projects and committing mortgage fraud (if you can’t detect

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2 Comments on Fed Still Saw Inflation As Biggest Risk, Minutes Show

Trump Moves To Oust Another Fed Board Member

August 20, 2025August 21, 2025

I’ve said it over and over again since Donald Trump’s autocratic inclinations became clear a

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25 Comments on Trump Moves To Oust Another Fed Board Member

US Home Prices Are Falling As Buyers Go Missing

August 20, 2025August 21, 2025

Don’t look now, but US home prices — the bane of every American renter’s existence,

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2 Comments on US Home Prices Are Falling As Buyers Go Missing

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • derek on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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