“Welcome back to the office. President Trump’s expecting good news.”

Furloughed US government statisticians temporarily recalled by the Trump administration said core inflation was cooler than expected in September, good news for markets and also for The White House’s rate-cut push.

Underlying price growth ran 0.2% last month, according to data collected prior to the funding lapse, the BLS said Friday. Consensus expected a 0.3% advance. Unrounded, the core gauge rose 0.227%.

September’s MoM core readout counts as the coolest since May. The YoY print, at 3%, was the lowest since June and undershot the collective wisdom of economists. The headline gauge rose 0.31% MoM and the same 3% YoY as the underlying measure.

A quick look at the breakdown reveals a deceleration from what, during August, was an uncomfortable uptick on the main food measures, all three of which were relatively benign for September, even as 0.3% on the grocery gauge is too quick if we’re honest. The energy index posted its largest MoM increase in quite a while as the gas gauge rose more than 4% MoM, but that index was lower YoY and besides: The MoM read is a bit of an optical illusion — it’s a function of the seasonal adjustment process.

Under the hood of the soft core readout, the shelter gauge moderated in September after reaccelerating in August. The index, a perpetual source of consternation for the Fed until recently, has settled down. Three of the last four MoM prints were 0.2% (rounded, obviously). Friday’s OER readout, at just 0.135%, was remarkably benign. Used car prices fell MoM, but the new vehicle index posted a 0.2% increase, while the apparel gauge rose a sharp 0.7% from August. Both the transportation and medical care services rollups were relatively benign at 0.3%.

As for the two measures which matter most for macro mavens, the CPI-derived version of so-called “supercore” services inflation posted a 0.285% MoM advance, while core goods prices rose a benign 0.22%, slower than August’s pace. Taken together, those prints suggest that neither “sticky” services price growth nor tariff pass-through inflation is problematic enough to derail a Fed that’s anyway determined to cut rates.

Bottom line, this should be (and probably will be) interpreted by markets as an almost unqualified piece of good news. In addition to green lighting next week’s Fed cut (which, again, was coming regardless), a December cut’s now all but a foregone conclusion because any government data released between now and the year’s final FOMC meeting will be viewed with skepticism both by traders and policymakers.

“The administration’s decision to recall BLS staffers to tabulate the September CPI release was rooted in the need for the yearly change as a driver of social security cost-of-living adjustments and, therefore, the October data was not collected during the process,” BMO’s Ian Lyngen remarked. “As a result, the September series is likely to be the final print without shutdown distortions for the balance of the year,” and although the eventual reopening of the government will “restart the data collection and publishing schedule, it won’t be until the December data period (at the earliest) that investors will view the incoming information as relatively clean.”

Minutes after Friday’s release, The White House said it’s unlikely the BLS will publish inflation data next month. As Trump put it — and I’m paraphrasing here — shutdowns allow you to do a lot of things you wouldn’t normally be allowed to do.