The Problem With Scott Bessent’s Neutral Math
A lot of times — too often — we take what ostensibly smart people have
Distant Thunder
In a Tuesday article for The New York Times, Lydia DePillis described the US macro
No Traction In US Single-Family Home-Building
New construction activity picked up in July from June, the second of this week’s US
Cost Of Mag7 AI Dream Spirals Toward $1 Trillion
Let’s talk about capex. Again. Because that’s entertaining, right? Don’t tell me you didn’t wake
How Realistic Are Wall Street’s 2026 S&P Margin Forecasts?
If I told you corporate profit margins were likely to hold up better than feared
Catch Me If You Can
Remember the S&P 493 “catch up” thesis? If not, don’t worry, it’s simple. It said
US Homebuilders Deeply Depressed As Incentive Use Soars
Homebuilder sentiment in the US is stuck in the dumps. Sorry. Let me rephrase. Builder
The ‘Best’ Earnings Season Ever
It’s official. With earnings season all but over in the US, Q2 was the best
When You’re In A Hole
It’s Jackson Hole week. Write your own jokes. There are plenty. Almost all of them
Inflation Up, Rates… Down?
On balance, professional investors expect inflation to move higher around the world over the next
Baked Alaska
A couple of days ago, in the short editorial accompanying the evening mailer, I reiterated
YCC: Coming Soon To The Fed?
If you had any doubts as to what Donald Trump wants in a Fed Chair,
Ice Kingdom
China’s suffering from mild deflation, but considering the challenging circumstances, the world’s second-largest economy held
Inflation Expectations Explode Higher, Consumer Sentiment Slumps
US consumer moods unexpectedly deteriorated early this month, when inflation expectations moved meaningfully higher. That’s
US Shoppers Unbothered, Apparently
Nominal spending in the US held up in July and a key underlying measure economists
Quality Not Guaranteed
In “How Overvalued Are The Most Expensive Stocks?” I spent a few minutes editorializing around
No Gut, No Glory
Donald Trump’s not famous for subtlety, nor stoic reserve. When in doubt, Trump goes with
How Overvalued Are The Most Expensive Stocks?
It’s been (another) good year for the mega-cap market leadership. There are exceptions. Namely Apple
Did The Levee Just Break?
We might need to fire another statistician. Wholesale price growth across the US economy ran
Skew (Still) Has A Story To Tell
Cautious. That’s something I won’t blame you for being. I spent some time being cautious
‘These Types Of Speculative Frenzies’…
I’ve talked a lot recently about… well, about everything. That’s what I do: Talk all
Tragicomic Punchlines
Until the US labor market turns — and that’s assuming the Trump administration lets it
September’s Burning Question
Hell, why not 50bps? That’s what Scott Bessent wants to know ahead of next month’s
Hope: A Novelette
My ghetto’s not your culture, people really die here So hard to say goodbye, is
As Summer Stock Melt-Up Crescendos, Is It Time For Caution?
Well, I told you so. I dare say I’ve trafficked in more bullish equity banter
A ‘Major Lawsuit’ For A ‘Major Loser’
Donald Trump’s going to sue Jerome Powell. Or something. We’re so far afield by now
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