The homebuilders are feeling better. With the caveat that “better” is even more of a relative term in this context than it is by its linguistic nature.

In the normal course of business, traders would’ve parsed a trio of useful US economic datapoints on Thursday in retail sales, producer prices and jobless claims. Alas, the government’s closed, so those reports are suspended.

That left NAHB’s update on builder sentiment as the only notable macro release from the world’s largest economy. At 37, the headline print remained well below the threshold that separates net optimism from pessimism but nevertheless counted as the best read since April.

As the figure shows, the five-point MoM jump was the largest since January of 2024. For reference, the NAHB headline has now spent 18 months below 50. So, the builder sentiment “recession” is a year and a half old.

NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz called October’s increase “a positive signal for 2026” in the context of the association’s projection for a recovery in single-family housing starts.

This week’s MBA update showed the average 30-year fixed rate ticked down to 6.42% in mid-October. I’d gently note that financing costs are higher than they were when the Fed cut rates last month, conjuring memories of 2024, when mortgage rates bottomed around the September FOMC meeting only to retrace a full percentage point higher in the months to follow.

The once piece of unequivocally good news to come out of Thursday’s NAHB release was a 54 print on a key forward-looking metric for single-family sales.

At the figure above shows, that was the best read since January and it doesn’t need a lot of caveats. That’s a good readout, particularly under the challenging circumstances.

“Combined with anticipated further easing by the Fed, builders expect a slightly improving sales environment, albeit one in which persistent supply-side cost factors remain a challenge,” Dietz went on.

Obviously, US housing’s nowhere near out of the woods. For the fifth straight month, nearly one in four builders cut prices, and by an average of 6%. That points to desperation, as does the pervasiveness of other incentives.

A Kansas City agent summed up the state of things in remarks to Redfin’s Dana Anderson on Thursday. “Buyers are hesitant because of concerns about job security and high mortgage rates,” the agent said. “Even though rates have come down from their peak, a lot of people are waiting for sub-6% rates before they buy.”