US mortgage rates. They’re high and low at the same time.

High in the context of the post-GFC ZIRP/LSAP reality. Very high in the context of the two-handle financing costs seen in 2020 and 2021. But relatively low in the context of the last three years.

Think about it this way: If you’re a toddler and you’re thinking about buying your first home, current rates are among the lowest you’ve seen in your lifetime.

The problem with that perspective is that the median age of first-time homebuyers in America isn’t three, it’s 38, according to the NAR. (The overall median was an “ancient” 56 in 2024.) Lehman was 17 years ago. So, for the typical first-time buyer in the US, current rates still seem high at 6.37%, even though that counts among the lowest weekly snapshots of 2025.

The figure above reflects Wednesday’s MBA update, which showed the average 30-year fixed slipping a third week and a seventh in eight.

That was enough to spur more refis but, crucially, not purchase activity. “The refinance index increased 4% as borrowers remain attentive to these opportunities to lower their monthly mortgage payment,” MBA VP Joel Kan remarked, adding that ARM applications were up 16% on rates that are more than 80bps lower than the 30-year fixed. But the purchase index fell 5%.

It’s nice that homeowners who bought over the last three years are able to knock a few hundred dollars off their monthlies, but the fact that the lowest rates this year aren’t catalyzing a meaningful surge in purchase apps is concerning and speaks to my year-old contention that the pool of would-be homeowners who can afford to buy at rates north of, say, 6.25%, is well nigh exhausted.

Meanwhile, more than 53,000 contracts were canceled last month on Redfin’s count, equating to around 15% of provisional deals signed.

As the figure reminds you, this share — the percentage of all pending sales that fell out of contract — remains very elevated versus pre-2022 levels, when it averaged around 12%, excluding the towering spike around the onset of the pandemic.

That share was especially elevated in Florida and Texas last month, where cancelation rates ran as high as 20%.

“Housing costs are frightful and economic jitters are in the air, leading some buyers to leave sellers in the lurch,” Redfin’s Dana Anderson wrote, adopting a Halloween-themed cadence for her editorial. Sellers, she said, “are getting ghosted.”