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Featured

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • ‘The Plain Fact’

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Services Inflation Makes A Comeback In Otherwise Benign CPI Report

August 12, 2025August 13, 2025

The first CPI report of the post-Erika McEntarfer era at the BLS conformed to expectations.

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3 Comments on Services Inflation Makes A Comeback In Otherwise Benign CPI Report

Chips Ahoy!

August 12, 2025August 13, 2025

That’s ok. You can keep them. Thanks anyway, though. No sooner had Jensen Huang secured

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4 Comments on Chips Ahoy!

Capex, Good Or Bad?

August 11, 2025

Capex, good or bad? It depends. Good, generally. Or at least that’d be my assessment.

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3 Comments on Capex, Good Or Bad?

‘Roving Mobs Of Wild Youth’

August 11, 2025August 12, 2025

On June 9, I stated the obvious about Donald Trump’s decision to put troops on

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11 Comments on ‘Roving Mobs Of Wild Youth’

For Sale: US Trade Policy

August 11, 2025August 12, 2025

“I appreciate the fact that you designed that chip specifically for the Chinese market, and

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19 Comments on For Sale: US Trade Policy

‘Hard Landing’ Is Passé For Pros

August 11, 2025August 12, 2025

Fund managers are the most bullish since “Liberation Day” was just a bad idea competing

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2 Comments on ‘Hard Landing’ Is Passé For Pros

Data Dubiety

August 10, 2025August 12, 2025

Ready your best gallows humor, it’s CPI week in the US. Judging from reader comments

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9 Comments on Data Dubiety

Zelensky To Trump, Putin: ‘This Is Our Land’

August 9, 2025August 11, 2025

Volodymyr Zelensky doesn’t want any part of it. A ceasefire arrangement negotiated without the participation

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11 Comments on Zelensky To Trump, Putin: ‘This Is Our Land’

Bull Markets, Dog Days

August 8, 2025August 11, 2025

Don’t fight it. The stock melt-up, I mean. It’s a losing battle. At least until

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3 Comments on Bull Markets, Dog Days

Trump-Putin Ukraine Plan Validates Kremlin’s Modus Operandi

August 8, 2025August 11, 2025

Congratulations to Vladimir Putin. He’s on the verge of securing from Donald Trump, shrewd negotiator,

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7 Comments on Trump-Putin Ukraine Plan Validates Kremlin’s Modus Operandi

Not The Gold!

August 8, 2025August 10, 2025

An under-appreciated aspect of policymaking in any Trump administration is the (I think incontrovertible) fact

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2 Comments on Not The Gold!

Boardroom Drama

August 7, 2025August 8, 2025

I’m running low on fake Donald Trump astonishment. After a while, there’s something disingenuous about

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6 Comments on Boardroom Drama

‘Giving Gazans A Good Life’

August 7, 2025August 9, 2025

Israel’s going to take over Gaza. Completely. But don’t worry. They’re not staying. It’s a

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17 Comments on ‘Giving Gazans A Good Life’

Tariff Fatigue

August 7, 2025August 8, 2025

Donald Trump’s latest and “greatest” tariffs kicked in Thursday. By now, who cares? “What difference,

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6 Comments on Tariff Fatigue

Undaunted

August 7, 2025August 8, 2025

Superman may be more powerful than a locomotive, but “Tariff Man” isn’t strong enough to

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6 Comments on Undaunted

BoE Makes History With Most Confused Policy Decision Ever

August 7, 2025August 7, 2025

The Bank of England carried on Thursday with what’s now among the longest easing cycles

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3 Comments on BoE Makes History With Most Confused Policy Decision Ever

US Labor Productivity Improves, Jobless Claims Move Up

August 7, 2025August 7, 2025

Good news: Productivity improved across the US economy and unit labor cost growth moderated, according

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8 Comments on US Labor Productivity Improves, Jobless Claims Move Up

We’re All Deranged Here

August 6, 2025August 7, 2025

You know, it’s funny: The era of hyper-partisanship in America’s actually turning me apolitical. Sure,

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12 Comments on We’re All Deranged Here

Railroads!

August 6, 2025August 7, 2025

Here’s something you might ask if you wanted to justify the swollen market-caps of America’s

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1 Comment on Railroads!

‘He Hates These Cans!’

August 6, 2025August 7, 2025

Tariff Man gonna tariff I suppose. Donald Trump made good on threats to impose additional

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7 Comments on ‘He Hates These Cans!’

A Buyer’s Market Where No One Can Buy

August 6, 2025August 7, 2025

There was good news Wednesday for millions of beleaguered American renters: Mortgage rates in the

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4 Comments on A Buyer’s Market Where No One Can Buy

Margin For Error

August 5, 2025August 5, 2025

If you’re a corporate, the simplest way to “mitigate” tariffs is to raise prices to

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1 Comment on Margin For Error

August Bulls

August 5, 2025August 6, 2025

Historically, September sucks for stocks. The good news is, it’s not September. Yet. It will

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2 Comments on August Bulls

Fire Burn And Caldron Bluster

August 5, 2025August 6, 2025

If you were looking for more evidence to support a US slowdown narrative that’s much

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1 Comment on Fire Burn And Caldron Bluster

The India Row

August 5, 2025August 6, 2025

A couple of days ago, while regaling a crowd in Uttar Pradesh, Narendra Modi enjoined

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7 Comments on The India Row

‘Get Ready For Stocks To Drop’?

August 4, 2025August 6, 2025

The most read story on Bloomberg as of 8 PM ET on Monday was called

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1 Comment on ‘Get Ready For Stocks To Drop’?

Fake Beats

August 4, 2025August 5, 2025

The beats aren’t real! Shouted anybody and everybody, with 65% or so of the S&P

Read More

4 Comments on Fake Beats

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • derek on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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