Risk Taking And Sell Signals

Strange as this sounds, a fixture of the equity melt-up to a succession of new record highs was risk aversion, at least on a relative basis and among a specific cohort of investors.

That cohort: The “discretionary” crowd, which is to say human investors who allocate capital for a living. The “pros,” if you like.

As discussed ad nauseam in these pages (most recently in “Trading Short, Playing Catch-Up“), a pervasive sense of generalized foreboding kept too many carbon-based investors sidelined over the summer while systematic strategies dialed their own exposure back up as volatility receded.

That means a lot of folks under-captured and under-performed during a maddeningly consistent upside move that saw the S&P register 30 new highs in less than four months.

With that in mind, note that survey panelists in BofA’s monthly fund manager poll are now back to neutral in terms of the risk they’re taking, as illustrated on the left, below.

That readout, middling though it is by definition, counts as the “highest risk tolerance since February,” the bank’s Michael Hartnett remarked, noting that in September, a net 15% of respondents were still taking lower than normal risk.

Meanwhile, cash levels in the poll slipped to just 3.8%, among the lowest readings ever (see the figure on the right). October was the fourth straight month during which reported cash levels were below 4%, the contrarian “sell” signal threshold.

Hartnett casually remarked that anything below 3.7% would constitute a “hard” sell signal. So, a “SELL!” signal, maybe.


 

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