JPMorgan kicked off big bank earnings Tuesday with a top-line beat, a bottom-line beat and a net interest income guide that was likely to appease investors.
The results were bolstered by the bank’s traders, who easily topped estimates as the bank “continued to benefit from higher client activity,” to quote from Jamie Dimon’s brief editorial.
At $3.4 billion, the loss provision was higher than expected and the full-year expense guide, at almost $96 billion, was up from the bank’s previous forecast, but as usual, there was plenty to like in the results for anyone determined to like them.
Technically, the managed NII print for Q3 — $24.07 billion — was a slight miss, but the bank guided for $25 billion in Q4, lifting the full-year guide to $95.8 billion (from $95.5 billion) in the process. Excluding markets, that latter figure will likely be around $92.2 billion.
In a preliminary run at forecasting 2026‘s haul, JPMorgan said NII ex-markets should be around $95 billion, up 3% or so from that $92.2 billion figure, with the gain “driven by balance sheet growth and mix, partially offset by the impact of lower rates.”
Long story short, that’ll work. It’s not anything that’ll drive a huge gain for the stock, but it’s a decent upside guide and that’s all they needed on the NII front.
As noted above, Dimon’s traders did well. The FICC haul was $5.61 billion, up 21% YoY and comfortably ahead of the $5.33 billion estimate.
In equities, revenue was $3.33 billion, up 33% YoY. Consensus there was $3.04 billion.
Those numbers — the FICC and equities trading prints — were almost indistinguishable from Q2’s tallies, which is a good thing. Q2 was also a banner quarter for Dimon’s traders.
The figure below shows the fee breakdown in IB for anyone interested. Advisory was the strongest since Q4 2024 and the second-strongest in nearly four years. Equity underwriting rose more than 50% YoY amid an IPO revival. Debt underwriting slipped from the prior two quarters, but at $1.174 billion was solid all the same.
In total, IB fees of $2.63 billion counted as the biggest haul since Q4 of 2021, during the halcyon days of that year’s “stimmy”-fueled “everything bubble.” All told, IB revenue of $2.69 billion was a slight beat.
Panning all the way out to the 30,000-foot view, adjusted revenue for the quarter was $47.12 billion which is — you know — more than I made in the three months to end-September, how about you? Consensus was $45.48 billion. EPS was $5.07, an easy beat.
Dimon included the customary reminder that JPMorgan’s prepared for anything. Literally. “There continues to be a heightened degree of uncertainty stemming from complex geopolitical conditions, tariffs and trade uncertainty, elevated asset prices and the risk of sticky inflation,” he said. “As always, we hope for the best, but these complex forces reinforce why we prepare the Firm for a wide range of scenarios.”
