US housing. It’s — what word should I use? — complicated. That’s a (very) polite euphemism, but it’ll work.

Last week, while editorializing around an unexpected increase on the NAR’s gauge of pending home sales, I cautioned against reading too much into the apparent uptick in contract signings.

That uptick, I wrote, “might” presage a fillip for closings “with the caveat that deals are falling through at very high rates.”

The caveat’s important. With the housing market in flux and generalized macro uncertainty still pervasive, asserting that a deal’s not done until it’s done is more than a pithy aphorism. And a signed contract isn’t a done deal.

Fast forward a week and wouldn’t you know it: Redfin said deals fell through in August at a record pace for that month.

There’s the chart. More than 15% of figurative handshake arrangements were nixed, equivalent on Redfin’s count to some 56,000 purchase agreements.

That, even as rates slipped to multi-month lows and despite one out of every six sellers dropping their asking price. (That share — the share of sellers reducing asks — was the highest for any August in Redfin data going back 13 years.)

Of course, there are any number of reasons why buyers might get cold feet. I once backed out of a contract for a four-level townhome because I wasn’t convinced of the builder’s assertion that a row of unsightly homes visible from the rooftop patio was set to be demolished imminently. (I was right. That row of ramshackle homes wasn’t razed for four years.)

But to reiterate: The record frequency with which purchase deals are being canceled in 2025 reflects pervasive angst among prospective buyers for whom any setback can be a dealbreaker. Just ask Phoenix agent Manny Bermudez, who told Redfin’s Lily Katz that, “One of my buyers almost canceled a contract because she accidentally flushed her engagement ring down the toilet during the home inspection.”

(“Hell no I’m not buying you a new one, Janice! The only reason I could afford that one is because the credit card came with a 0% APR 12-month teaser rate and a $750 statement credit when you spent $3,000 during your first 90 days!”)