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Featured

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • ‘The Plain Fact’

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Zohran Mamdani’s Not Crazy, The Rest Of Us Are

November 5, 2025November 6, 2025

I have no interest in debating New Yorkers about the merits of a Zohran Mamdani

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28 Comments on Zohran Mamdani’s Not Crazy, The Rest Of Us Are

US Services Activity Heats Up. Price Index Is Sky-High

November 5, 2025November 6, 2025

If you’re looking for recession canaries, you won’t find them in the marquee measure of

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1 Comment on US Services Activity Heats Up. Price Index Is Sky-High

Treasury Tweaks Coupon Auction Guidance First Time Since Yellen

November 5, 2025November 6, 2025

For the first time since Janet Yellen inaugurated conciliatory language to placate an irritable market

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6 Comments on Treasury Tweaks Coupon Auction Guidance First Time Since Yellen

Coy Labor Market Leaves Fed Divided

November 5, 2025November 6, 2025

Private sector employers in the US added more jobs than expected in October, this week’s

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1 Comment on Coy Labor Market Leaves Fed Divided

36 Days

November 4, 2025November 5, 2025

Not that markets care (Tuesday’s stock selloff had nothing to do with whether the US

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4 Comments on 36 Days

In US Housing, Turnover’s Never Been Lower

November 4, 2025November 4, 2025

America’s resale housing market remains woefully — perennially, even– beset. Closings have managed just a

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The Underappreciated Impact Of Leveraged Stock ETFs

November 4, 2025November 5, 2025

Occasionally, you’ll see a mainstream financial media article about leveraged ETFs, but such pieces are

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7 Comments on The Underappreciated Impact Of Leveraged Stock ETFs

Another Froth Chart

November 4, 2025November 5, 2025

Did you hear? There’s a bubble afoot. The financial media’s all over it. Michael Burry

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3 Comments on Another Froth Chart

Shiller! Bubbles! Burry!

November 4, 2025November 5, 2025

Ted Pick says “We should welcome the possibility [of a] 10% to 15% drawdown” in

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4 Comments on Shiller! Bubbles! Burry!

Virtuous Circle Or Rehypothecation?

November 3, 2025November 4, 2025

Another session, another circular AI deal. If this all implodes one day — you can

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5 Comments on Virtuous Circle Or Rehypothecation?

Bullish Stocks, Bearish Life

November 3, 2025November 4, 2025

I wish I were a Pollyanna. Really I do. Whenever I pen something that’s constructive

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1 Comment on Bullish Stocks, Bearish Life

33 Out Of 36

November 3, 2025November 4, 2025

The first of this week’s key US macro updates suggested factory activity across the world’s

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9 Comments on 33 Out Of 36

One Word: Strong

November 3, 2025November 4, 2025

Earnings season in the US is going well. Maybe you noticed. Specifically, 82% of companies

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3 Comments on One Word: Strong

It’s Jobs Week In The US, BLS Or No BLS

November 2, 2025November 3, 2025

In the days ahead, an assemblage of private sector US macro releases will give traders

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Fed Succumbs To Polarization Plaguing America

November 2, 2025November 3, 2025

Jerome Powell wasn’t exaggerating last week when he said there were “strongly different views” on

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1 Comment on Fed Succumbs To Polarization Plaguing America

Weekly: The AI Spending Question

November 1, 2025November 3, 2025

Now we’re supposed to believe investors are newly skeptical of AI spending. Just not at

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9 Comments on Weekly: The AI Spending Question

Buffett’s Cash Pile Hits New Record At $382 Billion

November 1, 2025November 3, 2025

It’s a Berkshire weekend. They always sneak up on me. Ol’ Warren (and “ol’” isn’t

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10 Comments on Buffett’s Cash Pile Hits New Record At $382 Billion

War With Venezuela Has Nothing To Do With Cocaine

October 31, 2025November 2, 2025

Donald Trump’s probably going to bomb the Venezuelan mainland. By the time you read this,

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11 Comments on War With Venezuela Has Nothing To Do With Cocaine

They’re Selling The Gold!

October 31, 2025November 1, 2025

They’re selling gold. Or at least they were. Sun-colored metal headed into Friday down two

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3 Comments on They’re Selling The Gold!

The Gen Z Put

October 31, 2025November 2, 2025

I can’t. Ok, I can, but it’s really, really hard. Suffer Wall Street strategists’ pretensions

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9 Comments on The Gen Z Put

Eternity

October 30, 2025October 30, 2025

I believe nostalgia [is] a model of unanimous eternity. The exile who with melting heart

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12 Comments on Eternity

Amazon Hits The Trifecta, Apple Stokes Holiday Optimism

October 30, 2025November 1, 2025

Amazon topped estimates in results released after the bell on Thursday. Total revenue in Q3

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3 Comments on Amazon Hits The Trifecta, Apple Stokes Holiday Optimism

Where To Now?

October 30, 2025October 31, 2025

I don’t love Mag7 reporting days. Or maybe I should say Mag6 reporting days. Tesla’s

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3 Comments on Where To Now?

Never Mind That Mushroom Cloud

October 30, 2025October 31, 2025

“I guess, on [a] scale from zero to 10, I would say the meeting was

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20 Comments on Never Mind That Mushroom Cloud

Europe’s Doing Ok, All Things Considered

October 30, 2025October 31, 2025

ECB meetings are non-events these days and will be for the foreseeable future. Long story

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Alphabet Has ‘Terrific’ Quarter. Spending Eyed At Meta, Microsoft

October 29, 2025October 30, 2025

“Terrific.” That’s one word to describe the quarter Alphabet just had. Or at least that’s

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2 Comments on Alphabet Has ‘Terrific’ Quarter. Spending Eyed At Meta, Microsoft

‘Far From A Foregone Conclusion’

October 29, 2025October 30, 2025

There was one overarching takeaway from Jerome Powell’s press conference on Wednesday afternoon in the

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1 Comment on ‘Far From A Foregone Conclusion’

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • derek on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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