Mind the capex pull-forward effect.

That was one message from Nomura’s Charlie McElligott who, in his first note of 2026, set about explaining a hodgepodge of potential green shoots visible across macro indicators including decent US data (see the big upside surprise in ISM services for example), firm freight/shipping rates and, of course, the furious rally in the metals complex.

The simple, “no-brainer” take says the economy’s responding to Fed cuts (with more to come) and expectations that Trump’s tax cuts will put more money in people’s pockets, perhaps rescuing consumer sentiment which loitered near all-time lows in America for most of 2025.

But a more nuanced explanation points to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s bonus depreciation provision.

“If you’re a CFO and the OBBB allows you to get 100% depreciation for capex in one year, you’ll absolutely accelerate as much of your multi-year capex spend into 2026 as possible, or risk getting fired for missing those tax benefits,” McElligott wrote, citing a colleague. “So it’s reasonable to believe that a meaningful chunk of the ‘green shoots’ we’re seeing are tied to the anticipation of the capex pull-forward.”

Food for thought. Meanwhile, relative demand for downside protection at the index level took a header of late, as illustrated on the left, below.

Call skew, on the other hand, is bid (figure on the right), ostensibly a reflection of right-tail “fear” (i.e., a grab for out-of-the money upside optionality to “protect” against a melt-up).

“We’ve seen some customer buyers of Vol recently [but] it hasn’t made much of a dent in the hilarious skew flattening in SPX options,” McElligott went on.

Puts, he said, “went kinda friendless end-of-year.”