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The Noriega Analogue
On September 28, 2024, I published an ad hoc Monthly Letter to account for "the historic significanc
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Thanks for the ad hoc Monthly. I always turn to your thoughts first when historical events happen. Thanks again, H.
Same.
“Trump’s also floated the possibility of military action in Panama to reassert control over the canal.”
Soon to be renamed the Donald J Trump Canal. Can we bet on that on one of those new wagering platforms?
https://polymarket.com/event/us-takes-panama-canal-before-2027
Nothing about the name has come out so far, but I’m guessing because we first have to take it.
Thank you, Mr. H
Excellent perspective
: Chavez “In August 2011, he used decree powers to incorporate Los Roques and other islands in the region into a new state territory called Miranda.” Some real estate might be up for grabs also. Prime Caribbean Waterfront, those pesky hurricanes don’t usually visit down there. Good location for a naval base also.
You are my explainer in chief …. thanks for the clarity.
H, what are the broader implications of this? Does it give China an even bigger green light to go after Taiwan?
Also, you can’t help but see the irony in Russia’s response to this “special military operation”.
From Larry Wilkerson’s, former CIA, blog:” I believe the true objective of the kidnapping operation to remove Maduro is to secure US control of Venezuelan oil in anticipation of a disruption of the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf when Israel, with US-backing, launches a new attack on Iran.”
Sorry Larry C Johnson’s blog, Sonar21.
Trouble is, war in Iran could result in immediate and substantial impact on current world crude supplies, whereas increased supply from Venezuela (and appropriate refining capacity for it) could take years to ramp up.
I have long been under the impression that Venezuelan oil is like tar and has to be heated to flow in a pipeline. It’s filthy crude we can’t even refine. I’m old so this might not longer be the case but I was under the impression that this stuff is no big deal (except to the Chinese).
Three zones of interest are emerging: USA and the western hemisphere, China and SE Asia, and Russia with eastern Europe. Trump just gave China the green light to invade Taiwan after telling Europe they are on their own with Ukraine. As mentioned there is no rule of law anymore. Cuba next?
Count on it. Rubio has wanted to effect regime change in Cuba his whole career. As a Cuban-American from Florida, that’s something which has been a part of him for his entire life. At this point, it’s his life goal. He made a deal with the devil to get in the position he’s in–just look at how miserable he seems every time he has to be a part of something that goes against his prior held stances, for instance the infamous live-roasting of Zelenskyy. He was willing to make that trade so he can get one of the two things he’s always wanted: Castros out of Cuba. (The other thing he’s always wanted, the presidency, might still be in his sights, but that seems like a less achievable goal at this point).
A little like the Molotov-Ribentropp non-aggression agreement of pre-WW2? Russia got the Baltics, Finland and parts of Poland and Germany got the rest of Poland.