Abu Mohammad al-Jolani is king of Syria now. Or something.

“Following his talks with a number of participants in the armed conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic, Bashar al-Assad decided to step down as the Syrian President and leave the country, instructing the government to transfer power peacefully,” the Russian foreign ministry said Sunday, in what must’ve been a very difficult statement for The Kremlin to write. “Russia was not a party in those negotiations.”

As of early Sunday evening local time, Assad’s whereabouts were still officially unknown, but reports suggested he and his family were in Moscow, where they were granted asylum. Assad left Damascus on Saturday when the main rebel advance, led by al-Jolani’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, reached the outskirts of the capital after meeting little meaningful resistance in Hama and Homs. Assad’s prime minister, Mohammad Ghazi Al-Jalali, was caught on camera being escorted into a car by rebels, some of whom were dressed in civilian clothes, others in military attire.

Al-Jalali stressed this weekend that he’s prepared to work with “any government the people choose” and will assist in the “smooth transition of government functions.” As discussed here on Saturday, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has no experience governing outside of a multi-year stint presiding over a makeshift statelet in Idlib, where they attempted, with varying degrees of success, to provide for the barest trappings of civil service. They’ll inherit state structures cut off from international trade and banking, and they won’t enjoy the support of Assad’s benefactors in Tehran and Moscow, nor will they get any assistance from Hezbollah.

We shouldn’t dance around the facts or otherwise delude ourselves: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is an umbrella group controlled by the successor organization to al-Nusra Front, which, as of a 2013 decree by the late Ayman al-Zawahiri (Bin Laden’s No. 2), had the dubious distinction of being al-Qaeda’s only officially-recognized franchise in Syria. That year, al-Zawahiri demanded ISIS confine its activities to Iraq (they didn’t listen). Shortly thereafter, al-Nusra was effectively promoted, earning the right to use the brand name Al-Qaeda In Syria. Al-Jolani had by then rejected ISIS, and he’d soon reject al-Qaeda too, marking the early stages of a pivot towards what counts in jihadist circles as “pragmatism.”

All of that to say this: Syria is now run by the successor organization to al-Qaeda’s officially-designated local franchise, and al-Jolani, a one-time US prisoner in Iraq and a former acquaintance of slain ISIS leader Bakr al-Baghdadi, is the country’s de facto head of state.

To describe this as a suboptimal outcome for Russia, and particularly for Iran, would be — and I’m calling it — the undisputed geopolitical understatement of 2024. This is nothing short of a disaster. Qassem Soleimani would be absolutely aghast. If he were alive… well, let’s face it, if he were alive, this wouldn’t have happened, and frankly, it would’ve been a lot harder to accomplish for al-Jolani if Hassan Nasrallah were still alive.

The fall of the Assad regime underscores the notion that Nasrallah made an egregious mistake by acting in solidarity with Hamas following the October 7, 2023, attacks on Israel. Had Hezbollah not provoked Israel into what, beginning in September, was a systematic effort to destroy the group’s military capabilities, Nasrallah would still be alive, and Hezbollah’s military ranks would be intact and capable of defending the Assad regime.

On Sunday, the AP showed footage of the Iranian embassy in Damascus, where a giant portrait of Soleimani and Nasrallah was ripped down the center, revealing the image underneath, which also depicted Soleimani.

Without exaggeration, Yahya Sinwar’s gamble was the beginning of the end for Iran’s so-called Axis of Resistance. For all intents and purposes, it’s over. Sinwar’s dead. So are his deputies, including Mohammed Deif. Hamas has no organized military capabilities at all. Nasrallah’s dead. So are his deputies, including his cousin and heir Hashem Safieddine. Hezbollah’s military capabilities are severely degraded, and with Assad gone, Iran’s ground supply lines to the group are severed. The militias in Iraq are intact, but in some sense, they’ve lost their raison d’être. The Houthis are still there in Yemen, but they’re going to need a new cause. On Sunday, the foreign ministry in Tehran said Syria’s future was “solely” in the hands of Syrians.

Benjamin Netanyahu took credit. “The collapse of the Assad regime, the tyranny in Damascus… is the direct result of our forceful action against Hezbollah and Iran, Assad’s main supporters,” he said, smiling. He quickly noted that the IDF won’t allow “any hostile forces” to embed themselves on the border with Israel. That — the IDF — isn’t a fight al-Jolani wants. If he has any sense about him at all, he’ll assiduously avoid any sort of confrontation with Israel. You don’t look a gift horse in the mouth, and you damn sure don’t punch it in the mouth, unless you want it to trample you and all your friends.

That said, Netanyahu likewise needs to be careful: A former Al-Qaeda outfit now runs the state next door. He’s aware of the inherent risks. “The collapse of the Assad regime offers great opportunity but also is fraught with significant dangers,” he said, adding that Israel “send[s] a hand of peace to all those beyond our border in Syria… who want to live in peace with Israel.” If anyone knows how dangerous it is to share a border with Sunni extremists, it’s the Israelis. Hamas, you’re reminded, is Sunni. The IDF regularly bombed Syria under Assad to target Quds bases, Hezbollah supply routes and so on. Israel would have no qualms at all about bombing Syria under al-Jolani if he should get any bad ideas, and make no mistake: Mossad’s already listening.

Incidentally, the US government was still offering, as of Sunday, $10 million “for information” on al-Jolani. On the DoJ’s “Rewards For Justice” page, the “Submit a Tip” button was still functioning hours after al-Jolani became Syria’s de facto president.

(“Dear Antony Blinken, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani is in Damascus, at the presidential palace. I’d like my $10 million now. I accept cash or certified check.”)

As for Russia, the foreign ministry on Sunday said Moscow’s military bases in Syria “are on high alert,” but added there’s “no serious threat to their security.” I’m not sure what that means. Al-Jolani probably won’t try to overrun those bases, but Russia’s air force no longer has a purpose in Syria. While Moscow will be loath to abandon Tartus, it’s hard to see how they can sustain it in perpetuity in a state run, even provisionally, by a group the Russians spent years bombing.

Daniel Shapiro, America’s deputy assistant Secretary of Defense for the region, indicated the US fully intends to keep the al-Tanf base “to ensure the enduring defeat of ISIS.” It’s been years since anyone bought that line. The Kurds can handle the remnants of ISIS. That garrison is a pointless American vanity project, and the Pentagon should probably take this opportunity to pull up the stakes.

Speaking of the Kurds — and I mentioned this Saturday — al-Jolani would be advised to keep the peace in the northeast. The Kurds do a good job of self-governing, they police for ISIS activity and if you just leave them alone, they’ll extend you the same courtesy. But if you go up there looking for a fight, you’re going to get one, and you’re going to regret it. And yet, it seems very likely that the rebels’ benefactor in Ankara will insist on something like unfettered latitude with regard to cross-border military activity against the Kurds, who Recep Tayyip Erdogan despises with a holy passion. It’s not a stretch to suggest that western Syria, including the capital, will now become a kind of client state of Erdogan’s.

And so it was that the Assad regime fell after more than half a century. Don’t worry, Syria’s in good hands. If you can’t trust al-Qaeda, who can you trust?