As Maduro Heads To Court, Palace Coup Questions Linger

12 thoughts on “As Maduro Heads To Court, Palace Coup Questions Linger”

1. If I were to bet on the likely course of action by Delcy Rodriguez and other key figures in the regime I would bet they will (hopelessly) try to buy time and perhaps offer a deal to Trump that includes unlimited access to Venezuelan resources in the hopes they can retain power. The regime’s strategy vs the US has been to delay action and renege on agreements and informal understandings when it counted, always calling the bluff. Sadly it worked with the Biden administration and it may still work to a degree with the Trump administration, although Trump being more transactional than ideologue the dynamic is clearly different, that without mentioning the fact that adherence to the rule of law and international norms is irrelevant now. Delcy Rodriguez and her brother have some influence but not nearly as much as Padrino Lopez, in charge of what remains if the military and Diosdado Cabello, in charge of the paramilitary and with the actual drug connections. I have a hard time seeing a future where the triumvirate trying to hold the regime together after receiving a “mortal” wound can coordinate anything other than some form of convoluted surrender where key figures remain out of prison and alive. To a degree it is surprising that after seeing Maduro in custody their message is still mostly defiant and propagandistic. Everyone in Venezuela I have spoken to in the last couple of days (business leaders, politicians, regular folks) believed the regime’s grip is extremely weak, rumors of internal defections and fear are rampant. Everyone knows the regime is vulnerable and defenseless against further US military action, their spell, for now is largely broken. I believe this will cause irreconcilable internal struggles that will incentivize the US to conduct further military strikes. At some point Rubio will realize you need to neutralize Diosdado Cabello for any “transition” to take place or if the US really wants to play puppeteer, Rubio probably knows that already, so the likelihood of further strikes remain high.

   1. Yeah, but Trump can’t just assassinate Cabello like he’s Qassem Soleimani or something. Yes, he’s a military figure and yes, he’s a drug trafficker but — and as prejudicial as this sounds — this is Latin America, not the Middle East. Drone strikes — for example — on Latin American government officials will be a tougher sell with the US public. Not that US voters give a damn one way or the other, ignorant and distracted as they are, but that’d be a very awkward press conference. With Mideast figures, you can just say “We killed a terrorist” and everybody will clap. If you start incinerating Latin American government officials from the sky, it’s going to require a lot more in the way of explaining even if those officials are every bit as nefarious on some vectors as any terrorist in the Mideast. (I think you realize that, but I’m just pointing it out for other readers.)

      1. Forget the drones, we might just have to do it the old-fashioned, 20th Century way!

      2. I think you are absolutely correct, which highlights the dilema for the Trump administration and the “plan” to run Venezuela remotely. The old adage “you broke it you fix it” might ending up hunting the US again. It is fair to say the US administration broke the regime in Venezuela, how do they fix it now? If we take Trump and Rubio at their word, and they truly want to pave the way for a transition that will allow the US to reclaim its sphere of influence, give US oil majors access to Venezuelan oil and allow Rubio to “run” the country from afar, one solution is to collaborate with Delcy Rodriguez and hope they achieve these goals. Who knows? it might work, my take is that it will probably not work, if the US really intends to “run” Venezuela and make it one of the gems in their “garden of free” nations they will have to address the “Cabello” issue at some point. How to solve it? That part is easy, the US can eliminate Cabello with a drone strike at will, the tricky part is what you point out, how do you sell it to the US public and electorate? I don’t know, this military operation already seems fairly unpopular among a good segment of the US population (if not apparently with US markets). I think this will be Rubio’s conundrum during the next few weeks and how he solves it will likely make the situation better or result in a mess of significant proportions.

         1. What do I know, but can’t they just pay him off? (sorry, I mean “share with the Venezuelan people their fair part of the oil revenue). The oil companies care less about democracy than stability, the paramilitary would be happy to “manage” the incoming cash and infrastructure jobs doling both out as they saw appropriate.

            1. Why not pay off Cabello and the remaining members of the regime? Well these are almost without exception all extraordinary wealthy people, there is a reason Venezuela is resources rich but with a population living in extreme poverty. My guess is they have been offered the option of leaving and enjoying their riches in a welcoming land (Dubai, Turkey) with a guarantee they won’t face US prosecution. Maduro was offered such deal but he danced it away, why would the rest of them reject a similar option after the US demolished any pretensions of military resistance is beyond me.

2. It sounds like Rodriguez received an offer she can’t refuse from Don Donny.

3. Relevancy
   Some people want to remain the biggest fish in a little pond.
   Or it was relayed to them that leaving Venezuela was not an option., keeping Trump busy there is a good plan for other people.

4. In 3-D Venezuelan chess, Delcy just moved to “check”, not yet sure if she has a “checkmate”.

5. Probably worth noting that Maduro’s son “unconditionally” backed Delcy Rodríguez today. For whatever that’s worth.

6. Thank you, Belachick, for your insight. I’m willing to bet that none of these clowns (Kegstand, L’il Marco, Donny, etc) have the slightest clue what’s really going on under the blankets in Caracas. Think of Baby Bush’s team (Runny, Cheney), who had real world expertise, but fell victim to their hubris in Iraq. These guys can barely function in the pretend world of the MAGAverse.

7. Sure enough, from the Times: “Army Delta Force commandos engaged in an intense firefight on Saturday with the Cuban security forces that had protected the ousted leader, Nicolás Maduro, outside his compound in Caracas, the Venezuelan capital. Mr. Maduro used the Cuban forces as bodyguards instead of his own military because he perceived them as more trustworthy.”