Gotta get those rates lower.

That was the (familiar) refrain from Trump surrogate Stephen Miran, who on Tuesday showed up on state television to reiterate what everyone already knows — namely that the next Fed Chair’s first and, let’s face it, only, job will be to cut rates rapidly and “bigly.”

“I think it’s very difficult to argue that policy is about neutral,” Miran said, adding that in his view, current settings are “clearly restrictive,” a stance that’s “holding the economy back.”

Just for fun, let’s compare that assessment to the NY Fed’s DSGE estimate. As a quick refresher, the NY Fed releases a model forecast for r-star, or the real neutral rate. If you add the 2% inflation target to the model, you get nominal neutral, which you can then compare to Fed funds.

The figure above shows you the recent history of, and a forecast for, DSGE model-implied nominal neutral, along with a “Miran-implied” rate trajectory that assumes quarter-point cuts at a quarterly cadence this year.

As you can see, the Fed’s own model suggests policy’s already stimulative. 100bps of additional cuts over the year would make it more so, and notably would take rates meaningfully below the median long run dot.

Recall that even the Committee’s more dovish members generally believe rates are near enough to neutral following three straight cuts (and 175bps of reductions since September of 2024) to pause. Not Miran.

The chart shows you two other model-implied measures. Only on the Holston-Laubach-Williams model (which tends to produce lower estimates) is current policy restrictive, and even there it’s a close call using core PCE.

“I think that well over 100bps of cuts are going to be justified this year,” Miran went on. Depending on the definition of “well over,” Miran’s suggesting that by the end of 2026, Trump’s reimagined Fed could, and indeed should, cut rates to levels that’d be ~200bps below the DSGE model-implied nominal neutral rate and ~100bps below the long run dot.

And as we’ve seen in recent days, Trump’s a man who insists on getting what he wants.