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Featured

Let’s Talk Blue Waves

November 1, 2026November 1, 2026
  • Polls, Projectiles And Payrolls

    November 1, 2026November 1, 2026
  • Weekly: The Leveraged Buildout (Speculative Gravity Control)

    October 31, 2026October 31, 2026
  • The Problem, In A Nutshell…

    October 30, 2026

Markets

What’s What And WTF?

October 30, 2026November 1, 2026
  • Oil, Dammit!

    October 30, 2026November 1, 2026
  • My Goodness: Amazon Spent Some Money

    October 29, 2026October 31, 2026
  • Alphabet Whiffs, Microsoft Hits

    October 28, 2026October 31, 2026
  • Mona Lisa’s Smirk

    October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

economy

‘Remains Elevated’

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Boom!

    October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Dissembling Strategery

    October 28, 2026October 29, 2026
  • Frozen Bubble

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026
  • It’s All Relative

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026

Geopolitics

Lagarde Versus Le Pen?

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026

The Tragic Irony Of The Israeli State

October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

Lula!

October 26, 2026October 27, 2026

Duly Noted

An ARM And A Leg

October 28, 2026October 30, 2026

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

As Crisis Swap Lines Tapped, Zoltan Pozsar Says ‘The New Shadow Banking System’ Needs A Backstop

March 18, 2020March 18, 2020

“Carry makes the world go round and central banks will have to backstop the shadow banking system – yet again.”

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1 Comment on As Crisis Swap Lines Tapped, Zoltan Pozsar Says ‘The New Shadow Banking System’ Needs A Backstop

It’s All Down But The Dollar.

March 18, 2020March 18, 2020

And yet, there’s one thing that’s up…

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oil1 Comment on It’s All Down But The Dollar.

Steve Mnuchin Didn’t ‘Predict’ 20% Unemployment. It Was Just A ‘Mathematical Example’, Ok?!

March 17, 2020March 18, 2020

I’m guessing “Great Depression II” wouldn’t poll well.

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2 Comments on Steve Mnuchin Didn’t ‘Predict’ 202 Unemployment. It Was Just A ‘Mathematical Example’, Ok?!

Fed Unveils Another Emergency Facility, Says Primary Dealers Can Post Stocks For Cash

March 17, 2020March 17, 2020

“Credit extended may be collateralized by a broad range of IG debt and equity securities”.

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4 Comments on Fed Unveils Another Emergency Facility, Says Primary Dealers Can Post Stocks For Cash

It’s Not Enough. It’s Just Not Enough.

March 17, 2020March 17, 2020

The situation is fluid.

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19 Comments on It’s Not Enough. It’s Just Not Enough.

Some Guy Dressed Up Like Steve Mnuchin Is Going To Send You Free Money ‘I Mean Now’

March 17, 2020March 17, 2020

“In the next two weeks”.

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9 Comments on Some Guy Dressed Up Like Steve Mnuchin Is Going To Send You Free Money ‘I Mean Now’

Fed Reinstates Emergency Commercial Paper Funding Facility In Move To Avert Crisis

March 17, 2020March 17, 2020

“The commercial paper market has been under considerable strain in recent days”.

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7 Comments on Fed Reinstates Emergency Commercial Paper Funding Facility In Move To Avert Crisis

Nomura’s McElligott: We’re Seeing ‘Nervous Dollar Hoarding Demand’

March 17, 2020March 17, 2020

“…USD funding pressure continues to mount despite the positive optics of the coordinated global CB FX swap line actions”.

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3 Comments on Nomura’s McElligott: We’re Seeing ‘Nervous Dollar Hoarding Demand’

Whac-A-Mole! Fed Faces Nightmare As Libor, Cross-Currency Basis Blow Out, CP Market ‘Frozen’

March 17, 2020March 17, 2020

Stress, pressure, strain – pick your descriptor.

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1 Comment on Whac-A-Mole! Fed Faces Nightmare As Libor, Cross-Currency Basis Blow Out, CP Market ‘Frozen’

That’s A Record Plunge In German Investor Confidence For Anyone Keeping Score

March 17, 2020March 17, 2020

Bleak.

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Leave a Comment on That’s A Record Plunge In German Investor Confidence For Anyone Keeping Score

$850 Billion.

March 17, 2020March 17, 2020

Governments are under pressure to do something – anything.

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7 Comments on $850 Billion.

The Biggest VaR Shock Since Lehman & The Risk Parity Panic

March 16, 2020March 17, 2020

Any takers?

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10 Comments on The Biggest VaR Shock Since Lehman & The Risk Parity Panic

‘It’s Bad’

March 16, 2020March 16, 2020

Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before a fall.

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9 Comments on ‘It’s Bad’

Off The Rails.

March 16, 2020March 16, 2020

”If the federal government doesn’t step up quickly…”

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7 Comments on Off The Rails.

Riksbank Expands QE, Tells Banks They Can Borrow ‘Unlimited Amount Of Money’

March 16, 2020March 16, 2020

Again, the ammo is all but spent, folks. Fiscal policy absolutely has to take the reins.

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Leave a Comment on Riksbank Expands QE, Tells Banks They Can Borrow ‘Unlimited Amount Of Money’

‘There Are Calls For A Market Closure To Stop The Bleeding’

March 16, 2020March 16, 2020

“Equities players voice no desire to even think about playing offense”.

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12 Comments on ‘There Are Calls For A Market Closure To Stop The Bleeding’

Speed Demon: Fastest Bear Market In History Leaves Traders Reeling

March 16, 2020March 16, 2020

Staring into the abyss – again.

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Leave a Comment on Speed Demon: Fastest Bear Market In History Leaves Traders Reeling

Empire Manufacturing Survey Plummets. March Drop Is Largest In History

March 16, 2020

And so, it begins.

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Leave a Comment on Empire Manufacturing Survey Plummets. March Drop Is Largest In History

‘This Is War’: Analysts Pile On As Virus Lockdowns Presage ‘Domino-Style Economic Collapse’

March 16, 2020March 16, 2020

Not to put too fine a point on it, but it’s over.

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5 Comments on ‘This Is War’: Analysts Pile On As Virus Lockdowns Presage ‘Domino-Style Economic Collapse’

‘Bazooka = Sell’: Markets Implode On Central Banks’ Coordinated Panic

March 16, 2020March 16, 2020

“It appears ‘Bearmageddon’ is upon us”.

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Leave a Comment on ‘Bazooka = Sell’: Markets Implode On Central Banks’ Coordinated Panic

China Reports Mind-Boggling Plunge In Retail Sales, Industrial Output, Fixed Investment

March 15, 2020March 15, 2020

On the bright side…

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8 Comments on China Reports Mind-Boggling Plunge In Retail Sales, Industrial Output, Fixed Investment

All In. Limit Down.

March 15, 2020March 15, 2020

“The Fed has likely fired off its last bazooka.”

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7 Comments on All In. Limit Down.

RBA Says Ready To Buy Bonds. Action Coming Thursday

March 15, 2020

“It was just a question of when”.

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Leave a Comment on RBA Says Ready To Buy Bonds. Action Coming Thursday

Shock And Awe: Fed Cuts Rates To Zero, Announces $700 Billion In QE, Enhances Swap Lines

March 15, 2020March 16, 2020

Now this a “whatever it takes” moment.

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15 Comments on Shock And Awe: Fed Cuts Rates To Zero, Announces $700 Billion In QE, Enhances Swap Lines

New Zealand Delivers Big Rate Cut, Commits To 12 Months Near Zero, Says QE May Be Next

March 15, 2020March 15, 2020

We are now firing the last bullets. And we’re shooting at a pathogen. 

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2 Comments on New Zealand Delivers Big Rate Cut, Commits To 12 Months Near Zero, Says QE May Be Next

Goldman Says S&P May Fall 41% From Peak. But Who’s Counting, Right?

March 15, 2020March 15, 2020

But that’s not the base case.

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6 Comments on Goldman Says S&P May Fall 416 From Peak. But Who’s Counting, Right?

Steve Mnuchin: The US Is Not In A Recession

March 15, 2020March 15, 2020

“I expect we’ll have a big rebound later in the year.”

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3 Comments on Steve Mnuchin: The US Is Not In A Recession

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Monthly Letter

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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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