The first quarter of 2020 will go down as one of the most consequential stretches in modern history, both for markets and for humanity in general. The new year began with the loud beating of war drums after the US assassinated Qassem Soleimani, and ended with virtually all nations engaged in a fight to vanquish an invisible, biological foe which, through March 31, had claimed nearly 41,000 lives globally. On Tuesday, New York surpassed Hubei (where COVID-19 originated) for total cases. The sta
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7 thoughts on “Requiem.

  1. I mean if you did need a bunker it is too late. What worries me is supply chain deterioration as more people get sick and cities become higher risk. Truck drivers are operating outside normal restrictions already. Amazon may have to close operations in NY. What happens when a city has extended periods without resupply of critical items? What happens when hospitals are out of staff due to illness from lacking ppe? We’re starting to take actions but I am not certain systems won’t break before we see the other side of this.

  2. The second quarter is really going to be interesting- isn’t that a Chinese curse? “May you live in interesting times”…As an investor it feels like whack a mole….the flip side is in 4 weeks we should have a much better read on what is to come. One positive sign is that investment grade corporate issuance is up quite substantially of late. Of course “leadership” and empathy coming from the US executive branch is sorely lacking

  3. I’m a pessimist by nature, but, this is a time to be studying Japan and negative yields and stuff like debt to GDP. Japan is still making cars and technology and their society has stability. Their sent has gone up over 200 percent in a few decades, but life goes on, somewhat normally. I’ve never studied that whole enchilada but it’s not a bad place to look for recovery ideas

    1. @Viss Indeed, but Japan has a pretty homogeneous culture with a strong sense of duty and honor. Not so much the United States. Considering that money is just a tokenized manifestation of trust with the ability entangle past, present and future value, the level of inherent trust in the culture through money is being transacted must be considered.

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